【出版时间及名称】：2010年欧洲重工业展望
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
We believe cyclical recovery plays,
runaway winners of 2009, may fall prey
to multiple compression in 2010
􀀗 As market leadership rotates, we
believe top-line growth (originating in
either secular growth or opex exposure)
will be decisive
􀀗 With this in mind our three key
Overweight picks for 2010 are Philips,
Sandvik and Volvo
Standby for a major Q4 earnings
surprise, but thereafter…
There comes a point in every bull market when cyclicals
experience their Tin Drum moment. The earnings stream
continues to grow bigger. But the market capitalisation of
the companies which generate that earnings stream stops
growing bigger, at least for a period (thankfully not usually
for the entire duration of the bull market) as they fall victim
to multiple compression.
In our core Tin Drum scenario for 2010, we believe investors
will increasingly place a premium on (scarce) top-line
growth. To pick stocks which will outperform in this
environment, then, we need to screen for stocks with a better
than average chance of enjoying that scarce commodity.
These stocks will in our view be found among two groups:
those with strong exposure to secular growth themes; and
those with strong exposure to opex rather than capex.
In this report we raise our target price for Philips (25% of
2008 sales exposed to secular growth themes; PHIA NA) to
EUR25 from EUR24 and maintain our Overweight (V)
rating. We moreover upgrade our earnings estimates by
58% for 2010e and 46% for 2011e. We raise our target
price for Sandvik (63% of 2008 sales from opex; SAND
SS) to SEK110 from SEK100 and maintain our Overweight
(V) rating. And we raise our target price for Volvo (45%
of 2008 sales from opex; VOLVB SS) to SEK90 from
SEK85 while maintaining our Overweight (V) rating.