【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月中国钢铁行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：39
        【目录或简介】：
Action
Maanshan remains our top BUY; recent seasonal weakness sets a good entry point
to the much-anticipated steel demand boom post-Chinese New Year. We also like
China Steel, which has underperformed regional steel peers such as POSCO, for
its well-timed capacity expansion at Dragon Steel. We remain Bullish on the sector
and expect higher raw materials costs will translate to higher steel prices.
􀁡 Catalysts
Stronger-than-expected demand growth; faster steel prices rises; larger cut in iron
ore contract prices and favourable government policies.
Anchor themes
Government spending on infrastructure, part of China’s industry migration inland,
will likely be the main driver for steel consumption in 2010F. We believe steel
consumption is likely to accelerate following the FAI peak anticipated in 2Q10F.
Strong demand allowing costs passthrough
􀁣 Strong demand to push up capacity utilisation rate
We are Bullish on steel consumption in China, supported by significant government
stimulus spending, which we estimate could amount to RMB10tn (vs the official
announcement of RMB4tn). We raise our expectation for apparent steel
consumption in China to 16.1% y-y and 10.0% y-y growth in 2010F and 2011F,
respectively, and capacity utilisation rate is lifted up to 85.8% and 89.7%.
􀁤 Consolidation continues
M&A is never easy, and it is even more difficult in China. A lot of times it is a
political decision rather than an economic one, which aggravates an already
complicated situation. Provincial/local governments’ concerns of losing
management control and tax revenues have been slowing the integration process.
While we believe consolidation will continue, little can be achieved in terms of
supply discipline or pricing power.
􀁥 Higher iron raw material costs to be offset by higher steel prices
Nomura’s metals and mining team raised price assumptions for iron ore and coking
coal, which are now the preferred exposures. Our house view now looks for a 30-
10% y-y increase in iron ore contract prices and a 39.5-25% y-y increase in hard
coking coal contract prices in 2010-11F. However, we expect the impact to be
largely offset by higher ASP. We therefore only adjusted our FY10-11F forecast by
(-1% to -5%).
􀁦 Investment summary
We remain Bullish on the steel sector in Greater China. Our top pick remains
Maanshan, followed by China Steel, while Angang and BaoSteel both remain
BUYs. Price targets are unchanged, since our price targets are based on P/BV for
FY10F, and this is largely unaffected by the minor earnings adjustments.