【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月日本钢铁行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Steel
China Risk to Recede.
Reconfirming Real Earnings
Power in the New Year
Still Attractive on steel –Our trip to China confirmed
that we expect China-related fears to subside in
Jan-Mar. We see progressive elimination of
uncertainties as positive for steel stocks next year:
(1) Easing pessimism on oversupply risk in China:
Demand remains strong on government staying
committed to flexible economic support, and local
steel makers are still retaining a profit focus. We
expect the steel spot market to be solid, in line with
key raw materials prices. Partly due to price hikes
by Chinese majors, we see steel product export
prices in Jan-Mar to also rise ca.10% QoQ.
(2) Uncertainty about Japanese majors’ ability to
maintain client base is subsiding: Even the latest
steel projects at large makers in China continue to
strategically focus on domestic demand, efficiency
and differentiation with small/medium makers.
Despite talk of oversupply, steel product export from
Japan to China is back to above-historical peak
levels. Data suggest differentiation strategies for
steel products by Japanese majors are working.
(3) Key raw material prices and margin contraction
concerns are seasonal factors: As prices via talks
will not be settled immediately, we think the market
may prefer upstream trading firms in the short term
due to temporary margin qualms. But if visibility for
margin level rises with progress in talks, earnings
power at current demand levels will become clearer.
Mid-term strategy of Japan’s makers to solidify /
grow the client base: Once earnings power has been
confirmed, the focus will move to longer-term growth
strategies. Unlike previous plans built around high-grade
steel supply, the key is now downstream – building up
client bases, sales networks, and group capability.
Strengthening the cost performance of commodity steel,
which has not been a focus to date, will also be pivotal.
Ability to capture stable demand from emerging markets
will lead to competitive advantage in the medium term.