【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月俄罗斯钢铁行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：37
        【目录或简介】：
We see improved domestic demand and
gains from international operations as
the key drivers for 2010
􀀗 We believe stock performance will
diverge and stock-specific issues will
dominate
􀀗 We upgrade Evraz, MMK and Severstal
to Overweight (V) from UW(V) and N(V),
maintain Neutral (V) rating on NLMK
We have revisited our Russian steel coverage in light of
recovering volumes in developed markets and our review of
long-term raw-materials prices (see Firing up the furnaces, 5
October 2009). Generally, we are more positive on steel than on
mining companies. We think earnings expectations are low and
believe companies will benefit from scale effects as production
aligns with underlying demand.
In our view, in terms of volumes Russian steelmakers will
benefit less than European names. Their domestic utilisation
now averages 90%, compared with 75% for their Europe peers.
But we think they will benefit from improved volumes in non-
Russian operations, rising raw-material prices (from vertical
integration) and domestic demand improvement.
Our preferred pick in the sector is Evraz, which we upgrade to
Overweight (V) from Underweight (V). Despite a strong recent
performance, the stock remains attractive to us on valuations,
trading at about 10% discount to peers on 2011e multiples. We
think the market has not priced in improvements in its financial
position. We believe its integration into raw materials will boost
margins and earnings at non-Russian operations are likely to
surprise on the upside. Our revised EBITDA estimate for 2011
is 10% above consensus. We like MMK for its leverage to
domestic growth and price premiums, and we upgrade the
stock to Overweight (V). Severstal looks attractive on
valuation which drives our upgrade to Overweight (V). We
remain Neutral (V) on NLMK.