【出版时间及名称】20091221JP morgan 2010 China equity strategy
      【作者】：JP morgan
      【文件格式】：PDF
      【页数】：47
      【目录或简介】：Table of Contents
Investment summary................................................................3
Favorable macro conditions from now until 1Q10E..............7
(1) The government has reiterated its “proactive fiscal policy” and “relatively loose
monetary policy” for 2010 in the Central Economic Work Conference ......................7
(2) The upward earnings estimate revision should continue in FY10, in view of an
acceleration in the economic recovery and improving corporate profit growth outlook
for FY10.......................................................................................................................8
(3) A marked sequential improvement in liquidity from December 2009 to 1Q10 ...13
(4) Rmb will likely resume appreciation in FY10, given an export recovery and the
rising inflationary pressure ........................................................................................15
Potential winners and losers from the resumption of Rmb appreciation in 2010.......17
China’s Central Economic Work Conference and policy
outlook for 2010......................................................................22
Key investment themes .........................................................25
Positive on domestic private consumption-related stocks 25
(1) More stimulative measures from the government likely to boost private
consumption in 2010..................................................................................................25
(2) Decent household disposable income growth should lead to a rapidly increasing
private consumption...................................................................................................29
(3) Accelerating progress in urbanization ..................................................................31
(4) Improving consumer sentiment ............................................................................33
Identifying under-valued China companies .........................34
Sector views ...........................................................................36