• [url=]20181115-摩根士丹利-20181115-Morgan_Stanley-Greater_China_Technology_Semiconductors:Smartphone_semis_weakness_prompts_Cautious_industry_view;TSMC_back_to_EW.pdf[/url][48页]
  

摩根士丹利Charlie Chan

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　　Buckle up for the smartphone semi downcycle. Greater China'ssemi companies depend heavily on smartphone demand, andwe see growing inventory risks in the coming quarters.　　The semi downcycle is broadening: Globally, we have seen weakness inautomotive, industrial, and cloud semis over the past few months. Now we'restarting to see bad news in the smartphone supply chain as well, and that willbroaden the impact of this semi downcycle. Compared to US semi companies,Greater China's semi players depend more on smartphone demand. For example,TSMC generates 45% of its revenue from smartphone semis, while MediaTek has40% revenue exposure to EM smartphone demand.　　Smartphone demand softening across the board: We cut our Apple iPhonesupply chain forecasts (see report), but EM smartphone demand could be thenext shoe to drop. China's smartphone shipments showed a double-digit declineYoY in 3Q18, and softness should continue in 4Q18. Most Chinese smartphoneOEMs remain bearish on the 2019 outlook, with a lengthening replacement cycleand 5G yet to be rolled out. Indian smartphone shipments have also gone from20% Y/Y in 1H18, to only 9% in 3Q18, according to the latest IDC data. In addition,our Qualcomm analyst, James Faucette, forecasts its chipset shipments to bedown 10% Y/Y in 2019 (see report), suggesting shrinking smartphone chipsetTAM.