英文版 Global Trends 2025:A Transformed World
We prepared Global Trends 2025:A Transformed World to stimulate strategic
thinking about the future by identifying key trends,the factors that drive them,where
they seem to be headed,and how they might interact.It uses scenarios to illustrate some
of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study(e.g.,globalization,
demography,the rise of new powers,the decay of international institutions,climate
change,and the geopolitics of energy)may interact to generate challenges and
opportunities for future decisionmakers.The study as a whole is more a description of
the factors likely to shape events than a prediction of what will actually happen.
By examining a small number of variables that we judge probably will have a
disproportionate influence on future events and possibilities,the study seeks to help
readers to recognize signposts indicating where events are headed and to identify
opportunities for policy intervention to change or lock in the trajectories of specific
developments.Among the messages we hope to convey are:“If you like where events
seem to be headed,you may want to take timely action to preserve their positive
trajectory.If you do not like where they appear to be going,you will have to develop and
implement policies to change their trajectory.”For example,the report’s examination of
the transition out of dependence on fossil fuels illustrates how different trajectories will
entail different consequences for specific countries.An even more important message is
that leadership matters,no trends are immutable,and that timely and well-informed
intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and
increase the likelihood of positive ones.
Global Trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the National Intelligence Council-
led effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade
or more in the future.Both the product and the process used to produce it benefited from
lessons learned in previous iterations.Each edition of Global Trends has tapped larger
and more diverse communities of experts.Our first effort,which looked out to 2010,
relied primarily on expertise within the US Intelligence Community.There was some
outreach to other elements of the United States Government and the American academic
community.For Global Trends 2015,we engaged more numerous and more varied
groups of non-US Government experts,most of whom were American citizens.
For the third iteration,Global Trends 2020,we greatly expanded the participation
of non-American specialists by convening six seminars on five continents.We also
increased the number and varied the format of meetings in the United States.These
sessions enhanced our understanding of both specific trends and drivers and the ways
these factors were perceived by experts in different regions of the world.Each past iteration produced an even more interesting and influential report.
Indeed,the worldwide response to Global Trends 2020 was extraordinary.The report
has been translated into several languages,debated in government offices,discussed in
university courses,and used as a point of departure in community meetings on
international affairs.The report was closely read and constructively criticized by myriad
experts and members of the public.
Seeking to capitalize on the interest generated by previous reports and to capture
even wider circles of expertise,we modified our processes yet again to produce Global
Trends 2025.In addition to increasing still more the participation of non-USG experts
from the United States and abroad to develop the framework for the current study,we
shared several drafts with participants via the Internet and a series of discussion sessions
across the US and in several other countries.This iteration of Global Trends is the most
collaborative yet produced;that collaboration has made it a better product and we are
extremely grateful for the time and intellectual energy that literally hundreds of people
have devoted to this effort.
As was the case with our previous looks at global trends that will shape the future,
the process and spin-off benefits of preparing Global Trends 2025 were as important as
the final product.The ideas generated and insights gained during the preparation of the
accompanying report have enriched the work of countless analysts and been incorporated
into numerous analytic products published by the National Intelligence Council and other
Intelligence Community agencies.Anecdotal evidence indicates they have also
influenced the thinking and work of many participants in the process who do not work for
the United States Government.We are pleased by and proud of these ancillary benefits
and look forward to reaping many more when others have a chance to read and react to
this edition of Global Trends.
Many people contributed to the preparation of Global Trends 2025,but no one
contributed more than did Mathew Burrows.His intellectual gifts and managerial
abilities were critical to the production of this report and everyone involved owes him a
huge debt of gratitude.Mat’s own note of appreciation on the following page lists others
who made especially noteworthy contributions.Many others also made important
contributions.We could not have produced this edition of Global Trends without the
support of everyone who participated and we are deeply grateful for the partnerships and
the friendships that facilitated and resulted from this collaborative effort.
C.Thomas Fingar
Chairman,National Intelligence Council