【出版时间及名称】：2010年全球新兴证券市场前景展望
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Look at ROE too, not just price-to-book. While it may be tempting to take
profits in GEM, as it was up 75% in 2009, we highlight that when ROE is
taken into account, GEM trades at a significant discount to the world. On our
P/B versus ROE valuation model, we estimate Asia’s discount to be 50%,
Latam’s 61% and EMEA’s 64% (see Figures 2 and 3). We arrive at these
discounts because Asia’s ROE is currently 11.3%, Latam’s 13.1%, EMEA’s
11.2% and the world’s just 7% (see Figure 1).
■ MXEF (MSCI Emerging) target of 1,200 arrived at using three metrics.
One, our GEM Six Factor Valuation Indicator is 14% undervalued on 2010E
consensus earnings growth of 28%. Two, the average return during the
second year of sustainable recovery is 20%. Three, GEM is up 16% so far
versus an average rally of 41% historically after the US ISM rose and stayed
above the critical 50 threshold for expansion.
■ Favourite markets are Turkey, Indonesia, Korea and Brazil. Turkey and
Indonesia are the most undervalued GEM markets on our P/B versus ROE
valuation model – trading at discounts of 143% and 113% to the world (see
Figures 4 and 5). While Brazil’s and Korea’s discounts are smaller at 81%
and 70%, respectively, we see Brazil and Korea as leveraged plays on
Chinese (China PMI new orders rose to 61 in December, strongest since
April 2008) and US growth (US ISM rose to 55.9 in December, the strongest
since 2006). We continue to favour cheap cyclicals over defensives.