Nobody deserves an economic downturn more than US president Donald Trump. But forecasts of America’s looming recession are at the very least premature.

That widely held expectation is driven partly by hope. It has become an article of faith among Mr Trump’s opponents that his 2020 campaign will coincide with a collapse of US growth. That would doom his re-election chances. It would also deliver a richly earned finale to the most fiscally irresponsible presidency since that of George W Bush.