【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月亚洲石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：57
        【目录或简介】：
pricing going forward – E&P and drilling have the largest mismatch; refining
is priced in. 2) Impact on pricing due to changes in perceived long-term
tightness – on the demand side due to changes in US demand patterns and
Asia gas substitution, and on the supply side due to the emergence of Iraq
as a credible supplier to the world, and to some extent Nigeria. 3) A decade
of gas? Asia on the cusp of gas supply growth, US gas resources upgraded
– implications for Asia oil and gas companies.
■ Where we are different from consensus is not on the direction of spare
capacity change, but more on the magnitude and incremental impact on
pricing. We agree with consensus that spare capacity will fall from its 2009
highs. However, spare capacity, despite falling, remains higher than history.
And much of the expectations of a lower spare capacity appears to have
been priced in at the current oil price level, which is not only above cash
costs, but is also comfortably above reinvestment levels. The all-time high
correlation of oil with equity markets suggests that the market is discounting
future perceived tightness today. Consensus has room to be disappointed.
■ Everything rose in 2009 with the tide; expect more differentiation.
However, more than 65% of our universe underperformed respective
markets. We like Reliance, PetroChina, GAIL, PGAS and OGDC. We are
sellers of CNOOC, PTTEP and the Taiwanese petrochemical companies.
We prefer ABAN over COSL.