【出版时间及名称】：2010年欧洲石油开采设备行业前景展望
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：48
        【目录或简介】：
Earnings upgrades to drive further outperformance:
After oil prices bottomed out in March 2009, the sector’s
PE multiple started to increase from ~5x to the current
value of ~17x. As a result, the sector rallied strongly in
2009, up ~132%. Currently, valuation multiples are
broadly in-line with their historical averages again.
However, we still anticipate outperformance in the first
half of 2010 driven by upgrades to 2011 consensus
forecasts. Our top picks are PGS and Acergy, based on
expected EPS upgrade potential, as well as Wood
Group and SBM Offshore, based on valuation.
E&P spending set to rise: At US$70-80/b, oil prices
are sufficiently high to make the vast majority of
upstream projects economically attractive. In addition,
oilfield service costs are reaching their cyclical troughs,
which removes an important incentive for oil companies
to delay investments. With a large ‘inventory’ of delayed,
un-awarded projects available, the rate of contract
awards is set to increase in 2010. Channel checks
suggest this process is ongoing.
2011 consensus EPS 14-40% too low for most: An
increase in contract awards should allow oil service
contractors to increase order intake and rebuild their
backlogs again. After the earnings downgrades of late
2008/early 2009, we now find 2011 consensus EPS
estimates undemanding.
PE multiples no constraint to outperformance: PE
multiples are at a ‘normal’ level again, if not somewhat
higher. However, the oil services sector has historically
shown no relationship between multiples at the start of a
period and subsequent equity returns. Hence, we don’t
expect this to be a constraint to outperformance yet.
Start of tightening is a risk later in 2010: Later in
2010, our strategists expect monetary tightening to lead
to concerns over 2011 growth and a period of market
consolidation/correction. Due to its high-beta and GDP
sensitivity, this is a risk for the sector.