【出版时间及名称】：2010年欧洲化工行业前景展望
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Price deck and model assumptions ................................................. 3
Deutsche Bank macro assumptions and commodity estimates ...............................................3
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 4
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................4
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
Costs, cash and sustainability .......................................................... 5
A year when self-help changes perception ...............................................................................5
Crude oil markets in 2010 – A year of price consolidation ........................................................8
Refining in 2010 – Keep your tin hats on.................................................................................11
LNG remains long as Qatar volumes ramp up ........................................................................15
Natural Gas Markets – Staying long supply.............................................................................16
Valuation: Upside apparent............................................................ 19
Absolute and relative upside...................................................................................................19
Absolute value: driven by 8% p.a. capital growth...................................................................20
Preferred names for 2010................................................................ 24
Buying a demonstrable improvement.....................................................................................24
Our preferred names at the start of 2010 – BP, BG and Total ................................................24
Ones to Sell at the start of 2010 .............................................................................................29
Ones to Hold at the start of 2010 ...........................................................................................31
Appendix A: DB Oil Supply Demand Forecasts ............................ 35
Appendix B: OPEC exposure........................................................... 37
OPEC exposure by company and geography..........................................................................37
Appendix C: Reserves in 2010 ........................................................ 38
Change in SEC requirements adds greater reality to reserve lives .........................................38
Appendix D: Company data............................................................ 39
Expected reporting 2010 reporting dates for European majors ..............................................39
Sensitivity to FX movements ..................................................................................................39