【出版时间及名称】：2010年英国零售行业前景展望
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：

UK General Retail
2010 Outlook: Storm Clouds
Building
1H10 should be reasonably benign for the UK’s
non-food retailers … In the near term, we see no
reason for the robust consumer of 2009 to ‘roll over’.
… but the storm clouds will build as the year
progresses: However, fiscal and monetary tightening
seem inevitable in the medium term. Combined with an
increasingly challenging sourcing backdrop and ongoing
industry overcapacity problems, we think there is plenty
for retailers to be nervous about in 2H and beyond.
We now see at least as much downside risk as
upside risk to FY 2010/11 forecasts … With 11% EPS
growth anticipated by consensus for FY 2010/11,
despite the pressures likely to emerge in 2H, we think
the current upgrade cycle is nearly over. 2009 was the
first year in at least seven that consensus retail forecasts
rose, and we don’t think investors should expect a
repeat in 2010.
… and retain our Cautious industry view: While the
industry is not obviously expensive, without further big
upgrades it isn’t nearly cheap enough to be attractive, in
our view. Our central case is that the industry modestly
underperforms in 2010, but we see the risk as very much
to the downside.
We downgrade Home Retail Group and Kesa to
Underweight: We make a number of changes to our
ratings and price targets today (as summarised in the
box on the right). Perhaps most notable among them is
our downgrade of Home Retail Group to Underweight.
We see the combination of cyclical and structural
challenges Home faces as a microcosm of those faced
by the wider UK non-food industry.