【出版时间及名称】：2010年英国食品零售行业前景展望
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：37
        【目录或简介】：

year for the big UK food retailers ... Tesco, Sainsbury
and Morrisons all delivered double-digit EPS growth in
2009 (as they did in 2008 and 2007) and we expect them
all to do so again in 2010. EPS growth will be steady
rather than spectacular (10-12%), but it isn’t dependent
on much economic recovery and comes with a high
degree of visibility. Food price deflation and/or a
genuine ‘price war’ are the only real risks to earnings, in
our view, and we see both as unlikely.
… but we think the market will appreciate it more
this year: Our strategy team tells us that reliable growth,
inflation hedges and secure dividend yields will come
into vogue this year. If so, the food retailers should
perform relatively well. With the industry P/E at a c.15%
discount to its long-term average and both Sainsbury
and Morrison trading below the value of their property,
we see scope for re-rating.
We upgrade our industry view to Attractive: We now
see no share price downside at any of the three UK food
retailers. Given our house view that the FTSE 100 will
end the year c.10% below current levels, we think this
makes the industry relatively attractive so we raise our
view accordingly. This contrasts with our Cautious view
on the General Retail industry (about which we have
published a separate outlook report today).
Sainsbury remains our top pick: Although we are well
disposed to all three names, our preference remains
Sainsbury, which we think offers the most attractive
five-year growth story (more growth than Morrisons,
much less risky growth than Tesco) yet remains unloved
by the sell-side and under-owned by the buy-side.