【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国化工行业前景展望
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：54
        【目录或简介】：
2010 Outlook Summary
After an extremely violent/volatile year in 2009, the stage is set in 2010 for chemical
investors to see moderately calmer seas and smoother sailing that should result in solid
performance and help the group outperform the broader market. However, despite our
expectations for a less turbulent environment than 2009 (how could it not be), this is not to
say the skies have cleared entirely. We believe investors need to keep their life vests on
and watch for rogue waves in what should be a “stock-pickers” market in 2010.
In our 2010 Outlook report we have highlighted some of the issues that we believe will
drive the group including:
■ The global economic outlook—our economists are calling for global GDP of 4.3% in
2010 and global IP of 6.9%. This should help to drive at least mid single-digit volume
growth for the group in 2010 (with risk to the upside).
■ FX—despite the recent strengthening of the dollar, the chemical space, which
conducts more than 50% of its business outside of the U.S., should benefit from a
currency tailwind in 1H10. Further if our economists are right in calling for the dollar to
weaken following its recent move, there would be even greater top-line and earnings
support for the chemical space.
■ Raw materials—despite expectations for tough year-over-year comps in chemical raw
materials (owing to destocking in 1H09 that resulted in trough raw material costs), we
believe the chemical group should be capable of managing price vs. raw materials in
2010 barring an unforeseen surge from the current raw material levels.
■ Pensions—one of the big headwinds for the group will be incremental pension
expenses. With asset values still down dramatically from mid-2008 and the discount
rate for most names at anemic levels (and certainly lower year/year), we expect
expenses and pension obligations on the balance sheet to be significant.
■ M&A—given improved balance sheets, narrowing bid/ask spreads for assets and
companies’ desires to drive growth, we believe that as it becomes clear throughout the
year that we are through the bulk of the economic headwinds, that companies in the
chemical space will put capital to work in acquisitions (primarily bolt-on but with the
potential for larger scale acquisitions), particularly in 2H10.
■ Bond yields—given the historically low bond yields, there is concern regarding the
potential for interest rate hikes and rising bond yields. Aside from the potential
associated end-market/economic slow-down that could accompany such a move, we
don’t believe an upward move in bond yields would have a significant impact on the
chemical group.
Finally, in addition to the above fundamentals, we also believe it is important to review the
group’s valuation. Despite the significant stock moves in 2009, the chemical group
remains relatively cheap based on historical valuations (see Exhibit 1). The chemical
space is currently averaging 8.3X 2010 EBITDA with the historical average for the group
on current EBITDA ranging between 7.3X (in 2009) and 9.4X (in 2001 & 2004) with an
average of 8.7X throughout the past decade.