1 论文标题
House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand
2 作者信息
Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey
3 出处和链接（比如，NBER working paper No.11000）
J Real Estate Finan Econ (2008) 37:71–91
4 摘要Abstract This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real)
house values in New Zealand for the period 1970–2005. Utilizing a dynamic present
value model, we find disparities between actual and fundamental house prices in the
early 1970s and 1980s and from 2000 to date. We model the bubble component that
is related to fundamentals (the intrinsic component), making it possible to highlight
whether a bubble still exists after that component is accounted for. We then analyze
any remaining bubble to detect any momentum behavior. Much of the overvaluation
of the housing market is found to be due to price dynamics rather than an
overreaction to fundamentals.
Keywords Real house prices . Real disposable income . Fundamentals .
Present value . Time-varying risk . Bubbles . New Zealand