【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国证券模型组合研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：77
        【目录或简介】：

STEP Portfolio Review
US Model Portfolio
Happiness is in the eye of the beholder. Forgive
us—we were Finance majors—but our full report begins
with a philosophical and psychological discussion of the
Model's 2009 performance. Should one be pleased with
2009's 23.8% gain, the portfolio's second best return
since 1998? After all, the portfolio did beat "the market"
(as measured by the 22.6% gain in the Dow Industrials
Average) and suffered no notable blowups. Conversely,
we don't envision too many medals for the portfolio's
worst relative performance (268 basis points behind the
traditional S&P 500 benchmark) since formal inception
in 1996. Simply put, the Model's larger cap, "high
quality" orientation could not keep up with the greatest
"junk" rally since the 1930s.
One year does not a decade make. Fortunately,
2009's relative shortfall did little to dent the Model's
longer-term track record. The portfolio has gained 215%
since inception versus 132% for the S&P 500. The
figures for the last decade (a 21.4% cumulative gain
versus a 9.1% decline for the S&P), the last five years
(305 basis points of annual outperformance), and the
last three years (238 bps of annual outperformance) are
similarly positive. This report focuses heavily on what
went right in 2009 (e.g., significant alpha in Financials,
the retention of several of 2008's notable laggards) and
what went wrong (the year's underperformance — and
then some — came exclusively from the technology
sector, where a 44% average gain was far from
sufficient). However, we also reflect on the key Model
trends from the entire decade of the ‘00s (call them the
Aughts or even the Naughts, if you must).
Don't judge this story by its cover. Again, we get
through the philosophy stuff rather quickly and focus far
more heavily on the ten key elements that we believe will
be instrumental to the Model's 2010 positioning. We also
include a review of recent portfolio changes and a
detailed summary of top and bottom performers. We
conclude with our familiar one-page summaries of the
key merits and risks for each Model holding.