2015 硕士论文 Real Options Analysis as a tool for Start-Up Company Investment Valuation 57页

 BACKGROUND/INTRODUCTION ....................................................... 5
1.1 Topic and research question ................................ 7
1.2 Real Option Analysis ......................................... 8
1.3 Research method ........................................... 8
1.4 Research Plan .................................................. 9
 START-UPS............................................. 11
2.1 Start-up company definition ............................ 11
2.2 Start-up financing ....................................... 11
 INVESTMENT AND ITS VALUATION ....................... 13
3.1 Investment decision ................................... 13
3.1.1 Different methods to value an investment ................. 14
3.1.2 Net Present Value(NPV) ............................................ 15
3.1.3 Discount rate ................................................... 17
3.2 Option ...................................................................... 18
3.2.1 Option valuation with NPV approach .................... 19
3.3 Real options ...................................................... 20
3.3.1 Real Option Definition....................................... 20
3.3.2 The risk-adjusted discounted cash flow method ........................ 22
3.3.3 Replicating portfolio approach ................ 23
3.3.4 Option valuation using the replicating portfolio approach ...... 24
3.3.5 Black-Scholes option pricing model ............................. 26
3.3.6 Differences between financial and real options .......................... 26
3.3.7 Marketed asset disclaimer .............................................................. 27
3.3.8 The risk-neutral probability approach ......................................... 28
3.3.9 Event tree and Decision Tree – ROA is a multi-period model . 29
3.3.10 The four-step process for valuing real options ....................... 34
3.3.11 The option to expand and other real options .......................... 35
3.3.12 Uncertainty ..................................................... 36
4 THE CASE ................................................................. 37
4.1 Case company ....................................................... 37
4.1.1 History ........................................................ 37
4.1.2 Business model ............................................. 38
4.1.3 Present day and future ........................................ 38
4.2 The company characterization ................................ 40
4.3 The investment plan ..................................................... 40
4.4 Real option description ................................................. 41
4.5 Four-step process to value the real option ...................... 41
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4.5.1 Net present value of the investment........................ 42
4.5.2 Event tree and the cash flow estimation ............................. 44
4.5.3 Decision tree ............................................................ 45
4.5.4 Real options analysis........................................... 50
5 CONCLUSIONS .................................................... 52
5.1 The case finale ...................................................... 52
5.2 End notes and further research .......................... 52
6 REFERENCES