国际货币基金组织报告
Table of Contents
Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... 2
I. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 4
II. The Prevailing “Views” in Existing Models of the Oil Market ........................................... 7
III. An Integrated Model of Supply and Demand ................................................................... 14
III.1 Structure of the Model.............................................................................................. 14
III.2 Estimation................................................................................................................. 16
III.3 Model Properties ...................................................................................................... 17
IV. Illustrative Model Simulations ......................................................................................... 21
IV.1 Smooth Rebalancing of the Oil Market ................................................................... 21
IV.2 Alternative Scenarios ............................................................................................... 22
World GDP Growth Scenarios ................................................................................. 22
Consumption Efficiency Scenarios .......................................................................... 22
Oil Supply Scenarios ................................................................................................ 25
V. The Risk of Oil Price Overshooting ................................................................................... 27
VI. Conclusions....................................................................................................................... 29
Tables
Table 1. World Oil Production by Type in the New Policies Scenario .....................................7
Table 2. Projected World Oil Production ..................................................................................9
Table 3. Parameter Estimates ...................................................................................................18
Table 4. Model Root Mean Squared Errors Compared to Benchmark Forecasts ....................29
Figures
Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Oil Prices ...............................................4
Figure 2. EIA Forecasts versus Colin Campbell Forecasts, 2003-2011 ....................................5
Figure 3. Unconventional Oil Investment and Production ........................................................8
Figure 4. Illustrative Oil Supply “Break-Even” Cost Curve as of December, 2015 .................9
Figure 5. Oil Prices and OPEC Spare Capacity .......................................................................10
Figure 6. World Oil-Consumption-to-GDP Ratio ...................................................................12
Figure 7. Fuel Economy of New Cars in the U.S. ...................................................................12
Figure 8. Car Ownership in 2013 versus 2000 ........................................................................13
Figure 9. Supply Elasticity .......................................................................................................15
Figure 10. Impulse Response Functions ..................................................................................20
Figure 11. Scenario of Smooth Rebalancing of the Oil Market ..............................................22
Figure 12. World GDP Growth Scenarios ...............................................................................23
Figure 13. Consumption Efficiency Scenarios ........................................................................24
Figure 14. Oil Supply Scenarios ..............................................................................................26
Figure 15. Global Upstream Capital Spending 2010-2017 ......................................................27
Figure 16. The Risk of Oil Price Overshooting .......................................................................28