【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月亚太海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：37
        【目录或简介】：

A/P Shipping
Near-term Positive News
Flow Could Drive Shipping
Stocks to Bull Case Values
Investment conclusion: We expect near-term news
flow for dry bulk and container shipping stocks to be
positive, supported by improving container shipping
rates (especially for Asia-US routes) and a strong BDI.
We believe that this could result in shipping stocks
trading up to our Bull Case values, which offer 40-70%
potential upside to current stock prices. We have
Overweight ratings on OOIL, EGM, WHL, PB and CSD.
Container shipping: Liquidity pressure and cash flow
constraints are compelling container liners to keep
supply on the sidelines and hence driving freight rates
up from current low and unprofitable levels. We think this
trend is likely to continue over the next six months,
especially in view of positive sentiment due to stronger
than seasonally expected container shipping volumes
over 1H 2010 as retailers cease destocking and
replenish shelves. Conversely, we believe strong freight
rates are unlikely to be sustainable as laid-up vessels
will be deployed in response to firming rates. We are
therefore positive on those container shipping stocks
that have attractive valuations and are well positioned to
restructure cost bases, but we remain cautious on the
stocks of companies with significant committed capacity
expansion plans and stretched valuations.
Dry bulk shipping: Fundamentals should be supported
by stockpiling prior to iron ore and coal contract
negotiations (expected to be completed by April) and the
reduction in effective ship capacity due to port
congestion. This is likely to push dry bulk shipping rates
higher in 1Q2010. We believe that supply concerns – the
order book represents 62% of the current fleet – are
valid and deliveries are likely to peak in 2011.
Conversely, we believe that much of the supply
concerns are reflected in stock prices and China’s
robust demand for commodities will likely underpin
stronger freight rates. We would look to sell dry bulk
shipping stocks on strength and accumulate on dips.