【出版时间及名称】：20100115 美国权益证券投资策略
      【作者】：citi
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：11
      【目录或简介】：
 Fourth quarter results should be quite strong. Leading indicators and credit
conditions have set the stage for strong industrial recovery which generally is
associated with a powerful rebound in corporate profits. Top line should become
the earnings driver rather than the cost savings emphasis seen in the prior couple
of quarters, with operating leverage likely causing upside surprises. However, it
seems improbable that management teams will provide robust forward guidance
as potential issues like higher taxes, health care obligations, the regulatory
environment and Fed policy all are contributing to a palpable sense of unease.

 The negative-to-positive EPS preannouncement ratio is relatively low. While not at
the troughs experienced in late 1996, early 2000, mid 2002 and early 2004, it is
evident that trends have improved with fewer negative-to-positive
preannouncements at a ratio of 1.4x which is meaningfully below the 2.5x
average. To some degree, this suggests that managements do not perceive current
sell-side earnings expectations to be that difficult to meet or exceed despite
several companies that will grab a headline or two about EPS misses.

 First Call calls for S&P 500 4Q09 EPS excluding Financials to be up only 8% Y/Y.
While overall estimates are up more than 180% year over year, the mere 8% increase
ex-Financials reflects a seemingly low bar given that non-Financial S&P 500
revenues are projected to edge higher by just 1% from 4Q08. This kind of non-
Financials profit improvement seems light in that economic activity has picked up
both year over year and from 3Q09. Indeed, ISM readings are up more than 20%
since the end of 2008 and have increased sequentially as well.

 Earnings estimate revisions have slipped from unsustainably high levels. In
October 2009, more than 70% of all earnings estimate revisions were to the
upside as the Street was compelled to raise numbers after having crushed their
forecasts earlier in the year during the throes of and immediately after the
financial crisis. History suggested that some modest correction was likely and it
occurred rapidly in late October. Since then, the percentage of upward revisions
has eased back to levels that allows for equity market appreciation.

 Despite improving fundamentals, several industry groups’ EPS revisions look
worrisome. Given that stock prices reflect business conditions relative to
expectations, investors need to be concerned about the peak-like revision trends
that are evident in many industry groups including Materials, Transportation,
Insurance, Semiconductors as well as Food, Beverage & Tobacco, to name a few.
Conversely, several groups still have rising revision trends that are not
approaching historical peaks such as Energy, Capital Goods and Consumer
Services, which offer positive trading potential.

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification and important disclosures.