Supply constraints drive resource realignment
As we start a new decade with the global economy emerging from the
worst recession of the post-war era, we expect the commodity supply-side
constraints of the past decade to once again reemerge, reinforcing the
sustainability of higher long-term commodity prices – a theme we first
began discussing at the turn of the current decade. However, the inability
to grow supply after a decade of sharply higher prices turns the question
of the sustainability of higher long-term commodity prices into one of the
sustainability of higher long-term growth. Ongoing robust economic
growth in the emerging markets continues to be an ever greater pull on
the world's resources, increasingly bidding away the more scarce
commodities from the developed economies, which will create even more
violent price moves and volatility.
Differentiation between commodities by supply
But not all commodity markets have finished the decade supply
constrained. Impressive supply growth in several key commodities in
recent years proves that many of these supply-side problems can be
alleviated through well aimed policy that motivates investment in resource
constrained sectors. Overall, the more binding the constraints on
investment and supply growth and the more leverage to emerging market
demand, the stronger the commodity price recovery has been this past
year and the stronger the outlook is into 2010 and beyond.