【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：

China Banks
Macro Policy, Top Line and
Fundraising Keys for 2010:
Upgrading BoComm
CCB is our top pick among large-cap banks;
BoComm is our top pick outside large-cap: We are
getting more constructive on the non-large cap universe
in the near term due to likely faster top-line and PPOP
growth in 2010, especially among those with relatively
strong deposit franchises. Our economics team’s
Goldilocks scenario for China translates into few
downside risks in asset quality, where large-cap banks
are relatively strong. We upgrade BoComm from
Equal-weight to Overweight and Minsheng from
Underweight to Equal-weight.
BoComm fundraising priced in: Consensus now
expects BoComm to raise capital, reducing room for
surprises, we believe. The stock is trading at a ~30%
discount to its historical average, while we estimate the
dilution from a capital raising would be ~10%. There is
less certainty about potential fundraising by the
large-cap banks, including BOC, CCB and ICBC.
Prefer CCB to ICBC on near-term NIM progression,
in addition to valuation gap: The percentage of
ICBC’s bond book that has yet to be repriced over 4Q09
and 1H10 accounted for 44% and 13% of its mid-2009
investment book and interest-earning assets,
respectively, compared with 22% and 6% for CCB.
Current market rates are lower than average yield on the
books. Due to interest-rate outlook, the banks tend to
focus more on the shorter end of duration rather than the
long end upon reinvestment.
Fine-tuning estimates on NIM, credit costs and
recent developments: 1) NIM estimates incorporate
further downward repricing of the bond book in some
cases, interbank trend and potential improvement in
loan pricing, 2) credit cost estimates incorporate our
Economics team’s call for 2010. In particular, we are
raising our net income estimates for Minsheng by ~10%
and our EPS estimates for BoComm by 3%.