【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：

Add more large banks exposure. We upgrade ICBC and BOC to
OUTPERFORM from Neutral. This does not reflect a change of view on the
bank’s fundamentals but that with a reasonable good earnings visibility into
next year and the sector’s record low relative trading multiple (0.8x), banks
are likely to see more rotational buying. Within the banks, we see more
value among large banks. CCB remains our top pick.
■
A quantitative analysis on risk of capital-raising. 3Q09 results also move
capital management centre stage in the coming few years. In this note, we
lay out some quantitative analysis and conclude that BOCOM should raise
about Rmb27 bn in the coming 12 months. Risk for CMB to issue more
capital remains post a rights issue but it is manageable. For BOC, capital
raising will be a matter of choice, which we see as unlikely. Risk for ICBC
and CCB are very remote.
■
Long large banks, take profits on BOCOM, CMB. We revised our 2009-
11E earnings estimates for all China banks post-3Q09 results to factor in:
1) weaker and more protracted margin expansion and 2) lower credit costs.
Our new 12-month target price, based on a Gordon growth model showed nil
change for CCB and ICBC, a 7-8% increase for BOC and CMB due to higher
earnings upward revisions and a 22% cut for BOCOM, which should lag
given a weaker earnings outlook. CMB’s shares are fully valued now with an
implied return of profitability to the 2007 level. Although the near-term
momentum remains supportive on improving pricing on mortgages, this is
mostly priced in and investors should look to take profit.