【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32        
        【目录或简介】：

1Q10 bottom lines generally in line with our expectations: A number of
Chinese banks released 1Q10 results overnight. In general, PPOP and
bottom-line figures met or slightly exceeded our expectations. While in
general we do not see a need to change our FY10 earning estimates,
Minsheng may be an exception due to strong fees and NIMs during 1Q10.
• Robust fees and mixed NIM in Q1: All 1Q10 results show robust fee
momentum, driven by a strong recovery in trade finance and strength in
corporate consulting/underwriting fees. Minsheng, in particular, showed
extraordinary fee strength, though it may witness some quarterly volatility.
Fee strength in general offset some modest NIM weakness during Q1. As
we said in our recent report on 26 April, the NIM picture is mixed. Some
banks that delivered strong q/q NIM recovery in 4Q09 witnessed a pullback,
while some smaller banks still enjoyed solid NIM expansion during Q1. We
believe quarterly pullback, however, will not derail rising NIM trend.
• Earnings and asset quality outlook remain positive: In general,
management guidance from various banks supported our bullish view on
operating outlook. Management of a few banks expect rising NIM in coming
quarters and explained that some NIM pullback was temporary due to
different reasons such as temporary asset mix changes, interbank funding or
placement. Meanwhile, while the degree of strong asset quality improvement
during the quarter may not sustain, given already very low NPL balance,
banks are generally confident on low NPL formation in the near future.
• Banks are focusing on improving capital and liquidity: Apart from
announced capital raising (including CCB's confirmed rights issue for 0.7
shares for every 10 shares held), banks are also relying on internal capital
generation to support growth. Some banks already made progress in
improving deposit franchise and lower L/D ratios. For some banks
(BoComm, BOC) investors should not expect much change in their Rmbdenominated
L/D ratios further in coming quarters.
• Likely consensus upgrades to support share prices: We expect some
upgrades in the Street consensus especially in Minsheng, Huaxia and
BoComm, though the pace may be slow due to possible doubts on NIM
trend. We continue to focus on "alpha" opportunities which may see
bigger consensus upgrades and ROE improvement. Top picks remain
BoC-H. Citic-H and BoComm-H. We think the recent sell-off in Citic, in
particular, is unjustified as the Street may misunderstand the underlying
trend.