【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：美林证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：39
        【目录或简介】：

Flagging the risks and reshuffling within the sector
Consensus is so bullish on the China bank sector that we feel compelled to flag
some risk factors. First, the sector has outperformed the HSI and HSCEI in the
past two years, and now trades at mid cycle valuation. Without any regulatory
changes, EPS growth is likely to peak in 1H10 and ROE to peak in 2010. Second,
2010-2011 could be crowded with capital raising from both listed and non-listed
banks. Third, market may be disappointed by the potential impact of rate hikes.
We dropped BOC to Neutral, and prefer ICBC for its comfortable capital position.
CNCB is our preferred mid/small cap bank for now, mainly for its undemanding
valuation and improving profitability.
The phantom of capital raising – US$50bn needed?
Capital raising is likely to be a recurring theme for the Chinese banks, given their
relatively low pace of capital generation and high pace of credit expansion. State
banks with nearly 20% ROE should be able to sustain 10-12% pa loan growth,
while JSBs with mid teens ROE and 20%+ pa loan growth may need to raise
equity every 3-4 years. Based on our projection, 2010-11 could be crowded with
equity raising, and some US$50bn could be needed in aggregate. No H-share
bank other than CMB needs to raise equity in the next 12mths, although BoComm
and CNCB could be under increasing pressure from investors to raise equity in a
24mth horizon. Big 2 state banks and the listed city commercial banks have the
most comfortable capital position.
Potential disappointment from rate hikes
The rate hikes in 2006-07 led to nearly 60bp margin expansion and ~30%
earnings growth. The looming inflation pressure fueled expectation of rate hikes
and market optimism on the bank sector. We, however, are concerned that the
rate hikes may come later than expected, and the margin impact may be more
neutral than positive. In 2006, stability of the financial system was at risk, and
margin expansion was needed to resolve the high NPLs. Now the sector enjoys
record low NPL ratio and leading ROE, and regulators’ priority has changed –
deposit rates may be raised to compensate inflation, while lending rate should be
curbed to contain borrowers’ financing cost and credit risks – asymmetric rate hike
is a credible threat to bank margins.
Solid 3Q09 earnings
Large state banks led peers on profitability while CMB continued to be the worst.
Small banks out-performed in QoQ NIM expansion. Asset quality was stable, and
banks are on track to meet the 150% NPL coverage ratio requirement. Credit cost
remained low at ~40bp, which boosted the ROE to ~20%. Key disappointments
were uninspiring fee income growth, and the sharp rise in operating costs. For
2010, we are expecting double digit earnings growth for the sector.