【名称及出版时间】： 中国银行业研究报告 - 2010.9.16. C
【来源】： DBS Group
【文件格式】： pdf nr  
【页数】： 46
【目录或简介】：
More concrete case for soft landing. August macro
data were encouraging. Two pillars of China’s economy,
retail sales and industrial production, came in better than
expected. Meanwhile, inflation remained manageable
and looks set to decline in magnitude in 4Q10. China
appears on track for a soft landing, and this bodes well
for banks’ asset quality and earnings outlook.   
Bigger banks have less provisioning risk. According
to mainland press reports, banks may be required to hold
provisions of at least 2.5% of total loans. This rumoured
requirement will not impact the Big 4 banks, but will add
provisioning pressure for smaller banks. We believe this
requirement is too crude and unfair, since it does not
consider NPL differences. Therefore, its implementation
chances should be low. Nonetheless, we believe larger
banks have better risk/return prospects amid this
uncertainty.
Turning slightly more optimistic. We maintain our
view that banking stocks will remain range bound in
2H10. Yet, given the encouraging August data and
upcoming rights issues from the large cap banks, we
believe banking stocks can trade towards the upper end
of their ranges. Our top picks are large caps CCB and
ICBC. We like CCB as it should be next in line to issue
rights in October. Meanwhile, ICBC is a good laggard
play, especially after the bank’s stellar 2Q showing.