昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读26小时

昨日阅读3小时，本月累计阅读时间20小时。

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读1207小时。

1、文章链接：https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3489492

2、文章摘录：从我们当前测算的结果来看，地方政府的债务规模与风险整体可控，但其中潜藏着一定的隐患。

一是结构性的局部风险。加入隐性债务后，部分省级行政区的债务总量庞大，增长较快，债务率偏高，财政存在一定的压力。考虑到部分省市的县市级平台财政实力更差，隐性债务对财政的依赖度会更高，财政的压力可能会更为突出。

二是债务期限错配的风险。现有债务多形成于基础设施建设、PPP等领域，建设周期长，现金流创造能力差，债务到期可能需要依靠借新还旧来偿还。

在货币政策处于宽信用与宽货币周期时，借新还旧压力较小，风险偏低；但当货币政策因防风险、保持内外均衡等因素开始收缩信用时，部分区域的城投平台可能会陷入再融资难的困境，债务风险会显著加大，长久下去可能会对货币政策构成掣肘。

三是财政风险可能会扩散升级。部分区域的债务可能存在担保链，城投之间互相担保增信，若单一主体出现流动性危机，则整个担保链上的主体都会受到牵连，进而使债务违约风险快速扩散升级。

同时，在规范地方政府隐性债务的过程中，当原有的担保函或安慰函被撤销后，金融机构对城投的认可度下滑，可能会出现惜贷、抽贷等现象，从而使在建工程项目停滞，政府与金融机构之间出现纠纷瓜葛。

为了防范地方政府债务风险，我们提出以下几点建议：

第一，全面检测地方政府隐性债务，建立起全口径的债务衡量体系（尤其要考虑折算系数的问题），遏制隐性债务增量，逐步去化债务存量。

债务存量的去化是一个长周期的过程，要把握好经济增长与防风险之间的平衡，利用中央加杠杆、动员民间资本有效合规的进入基础设施和公共服务行业等手段对冲债务防范治理过程中的经济周期下行压力。

综合利用财政资金、政府股权及经营性国有资产出让权益收入、项目收入等资金偿还债务，对于一些具有稳定现金流的项目，可以合规的转为企业经营性债务；对于部分债务率较高，互保风险较高的的区域，可视情况进行债务风险化解试点，定向解决潜在隐患。

第二，继续保持并进一步加强金融监管的强度，避免在结构性宽信用周期里出现资金套利，金融机构与企业变相违规为城投平台输血，增加地方政府隐性债务规模的现象，并完善中央与地方金融监管体制，避免地方政府对金融监管的不当干预。

第三，加快财税体制改革。前文所述均是应对当下政府隐性债务问题的权宜之计，94年后分税制改革后，地方事权与财权的不匹配，是造成地方政府违规举债的根源之一，现在应抓住改革的有利窗口，进一步理顺中央地方的财税事权体系，提高地方政府收入与支出的匹配度。

同时，要继续强化审计与问责，硬化现有的预算体系，淡化GDP的考核导向，树立正确的政绩观。

3、文章感悟：地方债一直是当前梳理不清的一个主题，在发展的过程中，地方债发挥了作用。但其过度使用也给地方进一步的发展增加了负担，积累了风险。政府发展的压力为其带来了发债的动机，官员的非终生制责任使得其发债行为没有受到限制。在风险不断积累的情况下，应摸清楚问题根本。从其发展过程中我们可以看到，因为政策的一步步退让，为问题的复杂化埋下了伏笔。

4、昨日阅读：0.5小时。

5、总阅读：18小时。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读390小时

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读229小时。

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读189小时。

昨日阅读一小时，累计阅读27小时。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读时间27小时。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读419小时

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读808小时。

昨日阅读时间1小时，总阅读时间426小时

昨天阅读1小时，累计1013小时

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读378小时。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读144小时。继续阅读《生态文明通识教程》关注生态文明建设，关注环境污染和环境保护。关注一下土壤污染，中国土壤面临的现状有些令人担心，调查显示，长三角地区，至少10%的土壤基本丧失生产力。据调查，南京郊区有30%的土地遭受到污染，浙江省17.97%的土壤受到不同程度的污染，普遍存在镉、汞、铅、砷等重金属污染。华南地区，部分城市有50%的耕地遭受镉、砷、汞等有毒重金属，和石油类有机物污染，有近40%的农田菜地土壤重金属污染超标。其中10%属严重超标华南地区主要存在铜、砷、锌、镍、铅、镉、汞等重金属污染。东北地区存在着严重的Pb,Hg,Cd,As,Cr污染，主要分布在黑龙江、吉林、辽宁的污水灌区、旧工业区及城市郊区。西部地区主要污染物是重金属汞、镉、砷、铜、铅、铬、锌、镍等。其中云南，四川，甘肃白银市市、内蒙古河套地区污染较严重。云南地区单个元素超标率在30%以上的达到37个县，而在河套地区共有近30万人受砷中毒威胁。

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读1133小时。

the bar was high for the ECB to surprise dovishly,

As we noted earlier, the bar was high for the ECB to surprise dovishly, yet it did just that moments ago when it announced (amid unchanged rates) that not only is it announcing a new series of TLTRO "starting in September 2019 and ending in March 2021, each with a maturity of two years", but also changed its rate guidance, extending its rate guidance beyond "at least the summer of 2019" and now sees rates on hold "at least through the end of 2019."


每日计划清单

1.背单词1个-O
2.阅读60分钟-O
3.俯卧撑-x
4.卷腹-x
5.负重行走-X
6.手臂-X
7.肩膀-X

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读296小时

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读35小时
仪式感，就是使某一天与其他日子不同，使某一时刻与其他时刻不同。
——《小王子》 ​

昨日阅读3h，累计 708.5 h
==================
《思想的力量：哲学导论》



445. 社会正义的两个原则
1）要求每个人平等地拥有“能够和他人的同等自由和谐相容的最大限度的基本自由。”
2）要求人这样来安排社会和经济的不平等，“使得（a）人们能合理地指望它们对每个人都有利；（b）地位和官职对所有人开放。”
其中第一条原则优先于第二条原则。


这个概念说的是：一切的社会性的善（例如自由、收入、机遇）都应该平等分配，除非不平等的分配对每个人都有利。

446. 个人的权利
Rawls没有明确把个人的“权利”作为一个主题来讨论过。但他的理论经过解读以后，明显可以看成是对这些权利的保护。

447. 自尊
在约翰-罗尔斯看来，最重要的善就是自尊。包括两个方面：1）这是一种信念，相信自己的计划、抱负是有价值的；2）相信自己有能力实现这些目标。
没了自尊，做什么事都变得毫无意义；即使有些行动确实存在着目标，我们也会缺乏行动的意志。“一切欲望和行动都成了空虚和徒劳，围绕我们的只有无动于衷和玩世不恭。”

448. 《政治自由主义》（Political Liberalism, 1993）罗尔斯对“随着时间流逝，当代民主社会中依然存在相互不一致的宗教和哲学教条，那么他的公平的正义概念如何能够得到它们的认同呢？”这类问题作了更为仔细的考察。

=========================
Blockchain:

Consistency
As discussed in prior chapters, hashing and the Merkle root of all transactions and behaviors on the blockchain allow for an easy calculation of consistency.
If consistency is broken on a blockchain, it will be noticed instantly. Blockchains are designed to never be inconsistent. However, just because data is consistent does not mean it is accurate. These issues will be discussed in Chapter 21 , Scalability and Other Challenges.
Peer-to-peer systems
Most computer systems in use today are client–server. A good example is your web browser and typical web applications. You load up Google Chrome or another browser, go to a website, and your computer (the client) connects to the server. All communication on the system is between you and the server. Any other connections (such as chatting with a friend on Facebook) happen with your client connected to the server and the server connected to another client with the server acting as the go-between.
Peer-to-peer systems are about cutting out the server. In a peer-to-peer system, your computer and your friend's computer would connect directly, with no server in between them.
The following is a diagram that illustrates the peer-to-peer architecture:


============
昨日阅读3h
累计 708.5 h

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读467小时

今天读了3小时，累计651小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读204小时

实在有点忙，勉强坚持了一个小时。


昨日阅读1小时，总计107.5 小时


机器学习导论-2nd Edition



我们确信存在某种过程，可以解释我们所观测到的数据。尽管我们不清楚数据产生的过程（如顾客行为）的细节，但，知道数据产生不是完全随机的。
即：数据中存在确定的模式。

也许不能完全识别该过程，但我们相信，我们能够构造一个好的并且有用的近似（good and useful approximation），尽管这样的近似不可能解释一切，但其仍然可以解释数据的某些部分。（我们相信，尽管识别全部过程也许是不可能的，但我们仍然能够发现某些模式或规律）这正是机器学习的定位。

昨日阅读1小时，累计27小时。

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读60小时。

昨天阅读2小时, 累计阅读424小时
阅读2小时-O Done.  完成

Beyond competitive advantage : how to solve the puzzle of sustaining growth while creating value
Author: Todd Zenger
Harvard Business Review Press
This book emerged out of this intense dissatisfaction with the guidance that business professors and though leaders have to offer about to sustain value creation. Relative to most popular business books on the topic, this book takes a distinctly different tack. This book does not distill lessons from the successful firms though the book provides abundant illustrations. Instead the book targets the thoughtful and aspiring strategist with an approach reminiscent of porter’s translation of industrial organization economics. Michael Porter highlights critical questions and trade-offs, and introduced a structured approach to strategic thinking. A central message of the book is that a strategist seeking to sustain value creation needs more than a map to a position. The strategist needs a corporate theory of value creation, something that provides ongoing guidance to the selection of position and a vast array of strategic actions. In much the same way that a scientist’s insightful theory reveals promising experiments to conduct, a well-crafted corporate theory reveals a succession of promising strategic experiments-a succession of strategies and strategic choices. Better corporate theories reveal better strategies- strategies with a higher possibility of success. Moreover, a well crafted corporate theory elevates the strategist’s task of sustained value creation from a series of a la carte decision about acquisitions, investments,design, financing, integration decision, and leadership, each guided by rather fragmented logic to a more coherent set of choices guided by a synthetic logic. The book illuminates the attributes of an effective corporate theory, connects coeporate theory to valuable logic in organization economics and highlights a corporate theory’s role in sustaining value creating. The hope is that upon completion of the book, you will have a clear understanding of strategic thinking that can move your organization beyond competitive advantage and toward sustained value creation.

The basic principles of business level strategy as taught in business schools and practiced in companies are simple: discover, target, and then craft attractive market positions that deliver sustained advantage in competitive markets. Firm achieve these positions as they configure and arrange resources and activities in ways that yield either unique value to customers or common value at unique low cost. This concept of strategy as position remains a central concept to business school curricula across the globe. Valuable positions, protected from imitation or appropriation by others, provide sustained profit streams.  The problem with this view of strategy is that investors reward companies only once for discovering, occupying, and defending a valuable market position. Once the achievement of that position is recognized and valued, investors turn and ask for more, and more requires successfully delivering either unexpected extensions of the current advantage or –more desirable-creating new advantages.
To help managers toward that goal, this book presents the concept of the corporate theory as a means of providing managers and executives with a framework for thinking beyond competitive advantage as they negotiate a changing and challenging environment in search of sustained value creation. As with a scientific theory, the object of a corporate theory is to maximize the probability of selecting valuable paths while minimizing costly mistakes. A good corporate theory thus provides a compass for those at the strategic helm and will, from time to time at least, help them beat the expectations baked into their current share prices or, in the case of privately held firms, investors’ valuations.
A corporate theory is not an abstract academic construct set about with obscure equations and language. It is rather a narrative, an explanation, or even an image that reveals how a particular company can accumulate value or compose competitive advantage over time.

昨日阅读1小时，累计394小时。

今天学习6小时，累计学习79.5小时

分享视频：王力宏在牛津大学的演讲——认识华流
视频来源：https://open.163.com/movie/2013/ ... R23.html?recomend=2
王力宏作为中西文化交流的大使，结合他自己的成长经历，以及一名非常有才华的创造性歌手，恰到好处的指出了中西文化软实力相互学习的好处，对整个世界进步团结的重要意义。非常值得聆听。
另外，强烈推荐一款学英语的软件
可可英语，大量免费的资源，国外广播，非常实用，还有中英文解析，生词解析

昨天阅读3小时，累计阅读358小时

昨日阅读3小时，累积阅读267小时

Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.
每个人都想要改变世界，却没人想过要改变自己。