昨天阅读3小时，累计学习5小时；
学习心得：
FT中文版：
2018年全球经济环境和资本市场经历了很多经济政策制定者，投资者，企业家都始料不及的重大变化。从以中美贸易摩擦为代表的全球经济贸易秩序， 到以美国联储加息周期为代表的全球货币体系重塑，再到以比特币和FAANG为代表的金融创新和技术创新所对应的资产价格的大幅波动，让全球既有一种凛冬将至的担忧，又平添了一分无所适从的焦虑和无奈。纵观历史，越是在这种秩序变革和趋势调整的重要时点，ZF政策制定对于经济运行的方向和影响就越是明显。而中国转轨经济的本质，经济增长转型升级的现状，和进一步全球化进程中对于变幻莫测全球经济依存度的进一步提高，对于目前中国经济政策制定都提出了不同于一般国家的更多和更高的要求。 经济政策的质量，也因此对于中国经济下一阶段的运行和发展，会产生特别重大的影响。经济政策制定，虽然是一个复杂甚至带有些神秘色彩的决策过程，但最终其实也是由一个个鲜活的有血有肉的政策制定者所起草和决定的。从这个意义上讲，政策制定的过程，不可避免地也会受到影响投资者群体和企业家群体决策的人类所共有的行为偏差的影响。只不过因为经济政策制定特有的复杂性和神秘性，外界难以对于其中的过程进行深入透明的分析。但即使如此，通过对过去二三十年里全球数次重大经济金融危机前后中的经济决策的回顾，我们仍然可以清晰地看到人类行为，特别是人类行为偏差，对于经济政策制定，一国乃至全球经济运行， 所产生的重大影响。历史表明，对于企业家和投资者决策产生重大影响的过度自信(Over confidence)，代表性偏差(Representativeness bias)，以及损失规避(Loss aversion)和维持现状(status quo)的趋势，对于经济政策制定，其实也产生同样，乃至更加重大的影响。
过度自信
过度自信可能是至今为止,行为经济行为金融领域研究时间最长，实验领域最广泛，研究发现最一致的一个领域。简言之，人类在进行主观性地判断时，普遍存在高估自己的趋势。这种趋势往往在复杂的决策过程中，在信息过载(information overload)时体现得更加明显，对于“成功人士”，和在决策者经历了多次连续的成功之后，会表现得尤其明显。行为经济学研究发现，人类的过度自信，既可能反映在决策者对于自己信息准确程度的过度自信，也可能反映在决策者对于自己应对不确定局面时掌控能力的过度自信， 也就是心理学研究中所说的控制幻觉（Illusion of control）。关于信息准确度的过度自信，一个最近的例子就是以格林斯潘为代表的美国联储在2008年全球金融危机之前进行的一系列的货币宽松政策。直至金融危机爆发之前，格林斯潘逐步说服自己和自己所领导的美联储，金融创新已经驯服了经济周期和通货膨胀，宽松的货币政策可以一直持续下去并无需担心诸如通货膨胀之类宽松货币政策传统上需要关注的风险隐患。在自己过去十多年的成功操作和在全球政策界鹊起的声名，使得格林斯潘信心满满地把自己的这种信念积极地向市场沟通，并且由此改变了全球投资者的风险偏好，预期，和经济行为。事后看来，格林斯潘在当时很可能高估了自己对于经济周期数据的解读和对于货币政策和经济理论的理解，因此直接导致了错误的政策选择。

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读342小时。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读10小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读827小时
1. 10分钟正念修炼-O
2. 12点前睡觉-O
3. 走路6000步-O

昨日1小時 累積102小時

昨天阅读3小时，累计阅读112小时

昨日读0.5小时  累计187小时  

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读643小时。

20190312 昨日阅读3小时，累计阅读146小时

昨日阅读:1h<br>
累积阅读:73h<br>
连续打卡:36天<br>
早起天数:5天<br>
昨天终于在经管福利社抽到两元红包，整个经管之家论坛其实给我们提供了一个获得正向反馈的平台，通过活动和论坛币鼓励我们积极输出，每日的积累不断地获得复利成长的力量，再加上各种学习资料的获取和不同人群生活和学习方式的见证，不断升级我们的认知水平。很感谢这个平台以及为这个平台默默耕耘和贡献的人们！

昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间140时
The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html (Page 207-213)
Remain Flexible in the Approach
Myth: Value Investors Only Invest in Bear Markets and Only Low P/E Stocks Qualify as Bargains

阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
As renowned investor Shelby Davis astutely observed: “A down market lets you buy more shares in great companies at favourable prices. If you know what you’re doing, you’ll make most of your money from these periods, you just won’t realize it until much later.” Bear markets are characterized by widespread disdain toward equities, causing many buyers to exit the markets at the first sign of trouble. This disdain is fuelled by endless negative newspaper headlines and television programs that further fuel investors’ disregard for equities. Forgetting that media outlets are talking about the current state of affairs while the markets focus on the future state of affairs, investors abandon equities at the height of bad news, thereby selling low and buying high. As the saying goes, what has risen shall fall, and what has fallen shall soon rise again. Surely not every stock that deteriorates will again rise — it’s up to you to provide the thorough analysis and determine whether a superior investment opportunity exists. It’s not easy going at it alone and buying securities when everyone is selling and companies are experiencing setbacks. Investing during times when the market mood is at its worst requires investors to be comfortable with the fact that prices could go lower still. Many investors have a misguided fascination with trying to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. That idea rests on the belief that investors can time markets perfectly, suggesting that the quoted price of the stock is the central object of focus. Value-oriented investors, however, rely on the stock price only in as much as it serves to determine whether the business is undervalued. And as is often the case, value investors usually buy before the bottom is reached and sell before the absolute top. But what counts is what happens in between: buying low even though the price may go lower and then selling high even though the price may go higher. In the end, the result is a gain on investment. Also, armed with the knowledge that the security is undervalued, investors have the added benefit of buying more as the price declines and thus getting an even greater bargain. The result of the value approach is ultimately a win - win for value investors. They buy cheap regardless of whether the purchase is being made at the bottom. Should the price decline further still, value investors see this as an even better opportunity to buy more for less. The late Benjamin Graham and David Dodd summed up their investment philosophy brilliantly in a passage from their seminal work Security Analysis. During Graham’s day, the concept of value investing was oxymoronic in the sense that if you weren’t investing with the goal of buying assets for less than they are worth, then you were speculating. The term “value investing” was not even used 60 years ago during Graham’s time, but what Graham and Dodd defined as the key to successful investing applies to any self-described investment approach: It is our view that stock-market timing cannot be done, with general success, unless the time to buy is related to an attractive price level, as measured by analytical standards. Similarly, the investor must take his cue to sell primarily not from so-called technical market signals but from an advance in the price level beyond a point justified by objective standards of value. It may be that within these paramount limits there are refinements of stock-market technique that can make for better timing and more satisfactory over- all results. Yet we cannot avoid the conclusion that the most generally accepted principle of timing- that purchases should be made only after an upswing has definitely announced itself- is basically opposed to the essential nature of investment. Traditionally the investor has been the man with patience and the courage of his convictions who would buy when the harried or disheartened speculator was selling. If the investor is now to hold back until the market itself encourages him, there will be nothing to distinguish himself from the speculator, and wherein will he deserve any better than the ordinary speculator’s fate. Value can be found in various different ways in various businesses. One business might be undervalued in relation to the free cash flow it generates. Another business might be undervalued because its future growth potential suggests that the intrinsic value will continue to increase over time (Johnson & Johnson). Yet another business might be undervalued because it would be worth a lot more to a strategic buyer. It is very easy for investors to take the lessons and philosophies of value investors and conclude that the approach is rigid in its nature. Four common myths include:
1. Value investors only invest in bear markets.
2. Only low price to earnings (P/E) ratio stocks qualify as bargain investments.
3. High - growth businesses cannot be value investments.
4. Value investors never sell stocks short.

阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Value investors love bear markets only inasmuch as they provide more fertile hunting for bargain securities. Value investors invest in any type of market as long as the ability to buy an asset for less than its intrinsic worth exists with a comfortable margin of safety. Bear markets offer greater opportunity to find such investments, but not the only opportunity. Value investing is, by its very nature, a very flexible approach. That’s not to say that the four aforementioned “myths” don’t appeal to value investors because in fact they do. Many value investors love to search for low P/E stocks, but while a business trading at three times earnings merits a very close look, it certainly doesn’t mean the business is a screaming bargain. If the business is able to continue increasing profitability, then the opportunity becomes very intriguing. Otherwise, the P/E of this year can easily become a P/E of next year. What matters most in investing is the future performance of the company over a reasonable period of time. In fact, many bargain investments arise from opportunities in which the business has suffered a temporary net loss, thus leaving it with no P/E multiple. The Business of Value Investing The market often punishes the stock prices of these businesses to the point that they may qualify as the best bargain opportunities. When discussing P/E ratio in the context of whether the figure is too high, fair, or too low, the discussion becomes very arbitrary. While many investors might agree on the fact that paying 75 times earnings for any business is grossly high, what qualifies as an appropriate P/E multiple for the value investor is far from specific. The P/E multiple is important but not so much on its own and more so with regard to the overall fundamental strength of the business. A company like Berkshire Hathaway that trades for 17 times earnings in 2009 cannot be considered expensive on a P/E basis, once the quality and operating performance of the company over the past 40 years are taken into account. Similarly, electronics giant Best Buy cannot automatically be assumed to be cheap trading at a P/E of 10 in 2009 in relation to a P/E of 14 for the S&P’s 500 Index. The goal of the value investor is to determine whether low valuations are a temporary or a permanent issue. If temporary, then the work begins in determining if the current price justifies making the investment.

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读152小时

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读71小时。

昨日阅读1小时，2019年累计阅读72小时。继续《现场管理》
丰田问题解决法的八个步骤是：
·明确问题。
·分解问题。
·设定目标。
·把握真因。
·指定对策。
·贯彻实施对策。
·评价结果和过程。
·将成果标准化。
我对这八步骤的理解：
1、找出问题，最核心的步骤应该是找出问题。定义问题是所有动作的前提，必须要找到问题的根源，这就已经成功了80%了；
2、找到问题，才能分析问题，找到对策。分解问题，能从一团糟的找出一个线索；
3、将成果标准化，一定要标准化，让知识传承下去。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读97小时

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4BlsX9NxCPSS8tOtyBEXQA

研发抗癌药，中国药企的一场“愚公移山”

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读160小时

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读160小时

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读160小时

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读160小时

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读160小时

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读160小时

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读160小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读211小时。

昨日阅读时间1小时，累计阅读时间424小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读148小时。继续阅读《生态文明通识教程》，关注生态环境问题。今天是植树节，第一我对植树节评价比较高，是一件利国利民的好事。第二想提一个与这个话题有关的人物——马云，当然主要关注的是他的蚂蚁森林，把营销和环境保护结合起来，把挣钱（推而广之，就是经济增长）和环境保护很好的结合起来，这个人是太厉害了。蚂蚁森林”让4亿人参加祖国的绿化活动。网上流传着一个段子：每天叫醒我的，不止是闹钟或梦想，还有支付宝里的蚂蚁森林。通过蚂蚁森林，支付宝用户可以通过步行、地铁出行、在线缴纳水电燃气费等低碳行为获得“绿色能量球”，还可以每天早起“偷”好友的“绿色能量”，在手机里养大一棵棵虚拟树。虚拟树长成后，蚂蚁金服和公益合作伙伴就会在地球上种下一棵真树。这个将游戏与公益结合的项目，自2016年8月推出以来，已经吸引了4亿多人参与，累计碳减排量超过308万吨，累计种植和养护真树5552万棵，守护保护地6.9万亩。不久前，美国国家航空航天局（NASA）公布了一组研究结果，证实地球与20年前相比更绿了，其中中国植树造林贡献最大。蚂蚁森林和余额宝、支付宝、相互宝、花呗、网商银行小额贷款等产品的理念是一致的，就是用科技和创新的方式，让普通人也能参与大行动，去实现客户价值，解决真实的社会问题。过去，在绿色可持续领域，人们更习惯“自上而下”的方式推进，更多是大企业、大机构的行动，普通人缺少参与感和驱动力。互联网平台能否创新应用新技术，搭建一个人人可参与的行动平台？2016年，在支付宝内上线“蚂蚁森林”项目，初衷是将人们对环境、对自然的关注，变成每日践行的绿色低碳生活。比如，鼓励人们少开车，通过公共交通出行减少碳排放，获得“绿色能量”，累积到一定程度后，就由蚂蚁森林在西北地区种下一棵真实的树。这个主意受到了广大用户的喜爱和欢迎。如今，“蚂蚁森林”已经成为全球最大的个人参与环境治理平台，亿万网友可以通过支付宝实时查看自己的树。通过科技和创新的方式，在“蚂蚁森林”的带动下，低碳生活方式正影响更多人，成为一种潮流，甚至是改变世界的力量。 “蚂蚁森林”成为一个开放的平台，不仅影响广大消费者，还能影响更多机构、企业及社会各界参与，共同改善环境、促进可持续绿色发展。截至2018年底，“蚂蚁森林”已经成为一个全民绿色教育、全民绿色行动的平台，超过4亿用户参与，累计减排超过308万吨，累计种植和养护真树5552万棵，守护保护地6.9万亩。蚂蚁森林在数字技术领域的探索，获得了国家林业有关部门的认可，跨机构合作已经成为常态，“蚂蚁森林”正成为全国绿色可持续发展的新协作平台。“蚂蚁森林”还受到了联合国和国际组织的关注。2017年1月，蚂蚁金服和联合国环境规划署启动了绿色数字金融联盟，共同寻求推动全球可持续发展的新路径。这是联合国环境规划署成立45年来，第一次携手中国企业发起的国际性联盟，也是全球范围内首个绿色数字金融联盟。同年，蚂蚁森林还出现在联合国开发计划署发布的碳市场报告中。报告提到，“蚂蚁森林”以数字金融为主的技术创新，在世界范围内有独一无二的实践意义。通过两年多的实践，有些地方虽然生态环境在变好，但老百姓的收入仍然较低，没有找到好的发展路径。今后“蚂蚁森林”项目不仅通过种树为当地老百姓提供就业机会，还要帮助贫困地区的老乡找到脱贫的方法。

今天阅读1小时，持续每天阅读累计151小时。

昨日阅读2小时，总共阅读38小时。

昨日阅读0.5小时，累计阅读10.5小时。

今日阅读1小时，Predictably Irrational, 7-12%，累积阅读时间56小时。