【出版时间及名称】：2010年中东欧、中东和非洲宏观展望
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：45
        【目录或简介】：


CEEMEA 2010 Outlook
Bouncing Back from the Brink
2010 should be a year when most central banks globally start planning their exit from super-expansionary policies and GDP growth improves across both developed markets and emerging markets (more forcefully in the latter). The CEEMEA region will likely see growth resume on the back of restocking and fiscal stimulus, though the picture will as always vary: We expect Russia and Turkey to lead the pack, with Poland once again an outperformer across the CEE countries. Policy-wise, some banks remain committed to easing policy, especially those that started easing ‘late’ (Russia, Romania), while those that had acted preemptively (Israel, the Czech Republic) are set to tighten. South Africa, which was late in easing policy rates, is also likely to lag in the tightening phase. We believe that 2010 will also be a year in which current account adjustments in high-deficit countries stabilise, or even reverse, and oil-rich countries see a significant improvement in their external balances (Russia, UAE). The election agenda will be very busy this year in CEE, with important polls in Ukraine, the Czech Republic and Poland. South Africa appears to have crossed the election bridge relatively smoothly in 2009.
Page
Czech Republic: As Cyclical as it Gets
7
Israel: A Textbook Upswing
10
Poland: A New MPC, an Election and Plenty of Fiscal Challenges
13
Romania: In Search of Stability, with Better Prospects Now
16
Russia: Still in a Sweet Spot
18
South Africa: Consolidation Underway in 2010
21
Turkey: Resilience Is Proven, it’s Time to Grow
27
UAE: Facing its Post-Recession Challenges
32
Ukraine: Challenges Ahead; Default Still Remote
38