【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国半导体行业前景展望
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：45
        【目录或简介】：

Table of Contents
Investment Thesis ............................................................................. 4
Broad based recovery expected in 2010...................................................................................4
2010 semiconductor forecast ........................................................... 5
2010 industry growth likely to hit +10%...................................................................................5
Supply lean – Inventories trending below 2004 levels ..............................................................5
Global GDP outlook positive ............................................................ 9
Macro supportive in 2010 .........................................................................................................9
Application market outlook............................................................ 11
PCs and Handsets drive semiconductor content ....................................................................11
PCs: Strong 4Q09 extends into 2010......................................................................................12
Wireless semiconductors – return to growth..........................................................................12
Consumer semiconductors – pricing pressure to ease...........................................................14
Product segment outlook ............................................................... 16
All segments likely to see growth in 2010 ..............................................................................16
Microprocessors – Outperformance likely to continue ...........................................................17
DRAM – Recovery mode ........................................................................................................17
Flash memory – From strength to strength ............................................................................18
Analog – Broad based recovery in 2010..................................................................................20
Revenue and EPS estimates ........................................................... 22
2009 rebounded from the abyss.............................................................................................22
2010 estimates rising, but further upward revisions likely ......................................................23
Valuation .......................................................................................... 25
Strong 2009 for SOX, but only back to average vs. S&P 500..................................................25
EV/Sales remains near historic trough levels ..........................................................................25
4Q09 preview................................................................................... 27
4Q results likely at high end of guidance ................................................................................27
1Q10 outlooks likely to be for “seasonal” or slightly better ...................................................28
Company specific previews............................................................ 30
Advanced Micro Devices ($9, Hold, Reporting AMC 1/21/10) ................................................30
Broadcom ($30, Hold, Reporting TBD)....................................................................................30
Fairchild Semiconductor ($10, Buy, Reporting TBD) ...............................................................30
Integrated Device Technology ($7, Buy, Reporting TBD)........................................................31
Intel ($21, Buy, Reporting AMC 1/14/10) ................................................................................31
Intersil ($14, Buy, Reporting TBD)...........................................................................................32
Linear Technology ($31, Hold, Reporting TBD) .......................................................................32
LSI Corp ($6, Buy, Reporting AMC 1/27/10)............................................................................32
Maxim Integrated Products ($20, Hold, Reporting TBD).........................................................33
Monolithic Power Systems ($23 Buy, Reporting TBD) ...........................................................33
Netlogic..................................................................................................................................33
ON Semiconductor ($9, Buy, Reporting TBD).........................................................................34
Power Integrations ($36, Buy, Reporting TBD) .......................................................................34
SanDisk ($31, Buy, Reporting TBD).........................................................................................34
Texas Instruments ($26, Hold, Reporting AMC 1/25/10).........................................................34
Company valuations & risks ........................................................... 36
Advanced Micro Devices ........................................................................................................36
Avago.....................................................................................................................................36
Broadcom ...............................................................................................................................36
Fairchild Semiconductor..........................................................................................................37
Integrated Device Technology ................................................................................................37
Intel ........................................................................................................................................37
Intersil ....................................................................................................................................38
Linear Technology...................................................................................................................38
LSI..........................................................................................................................................38
Maxim Integrated Products.....................................................................................................39
Monolithic Power Systems.....................................................................................................39
National Semiconductor..........................................................................................................40
Netlogic..................................................................................................................................40
ON Semiconductor .................................................................................................................40
Power Integrations..................................................................................................................41
SanDisk ..................................................................................................................................41
Texas Instruments...................................................................................................................41