【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国互联网与传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：61
        【目录或简介】：


Buy ad leaders for mid-cycle recovery: We believe
advertising recovery may offer one of the most profitable
investment opportunities across China for 2010, as
companies accelerate ad spending after their recovery
in 2H09. We are buyers of ad leaders – including Sina,
Sohu, Focus Media, AirMedia, and VisionChina – which
dominate their “vertical” ad markets.
What is fueling the ad volume uptick? 1) Multinationals
(MNCs) are stepping up their marketing campaigns after
massive budget cuts last year due to global slowdown. 2)
Domestic firms are trying to boost their brands after the
financial crisis, in the hope that premium brands may lift
their pricing and thus razor-thin margins.
What catalyzed ad price hikes? 1) CCTV’s robust
prime-time ad auction sales (+18.5% YoY); 2) price
increase by local TV stations (20%+ for 2010 on
average), as they raised ad prices to compensate for
their ad inventory losses under new regulations; 3)
cheaper ad prices and yet faster viewer growth for “new”
media relative to “old” media; and 4) “gatekeeper” status
and thus higher pricing power for “new” media leaders
(e.g., Focus Media, AirMedia, and VisionChina).
Operating leverage is your friend: Notably, 1) human
capital costs for these advertising leaders should remain
largely stable. They did not let go many people last year
and thus have no need for massive hiring this year. 2)
Some leaders (e.g., Focus Media and AirMedia) took
advantage of the downturn to negotiate down their
concession costs. 3) These leaders will focus more on
“organic growth” and utilization rate improvement, which
should directly enrich their bottom lines.
Seeking micro plays on macro uptrend: We lean
toward ad players: 1) whose top advertising segments
are cyclical (e.g., Sina’s top 3 ad categories include auto,
property, and financials); and 2) whose managements
have further aligned their own interests with investors’
(Sina and Focus Media’s CEOs borrowed money to
raise their personal stakes in their companies).