【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国及香港地区房地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：星展银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：80
        【目录或简介】：
Policy overhang remains
• More polices may be forthcoming but the most
effective ones have been out.
• Lower relative downside risk after 20%
underperformance in the past 6 month.
• Upside capped for policy noises. Range-trade in the
near term; strong and commercial players shall
outperform.
• We like COLI, CR Land, Shimao and Franshion.
Market sentiment will stay weak near term. As a result
of policy noises, we foresee weak investment sentiment in
the near term. With the launch of the National 11
Measures, which include 40% down payment rule for
upgraders, we believe the most effective ones have been
out. While our analysis indicates another 20% property
price increase in China could trigger more severe measures,
we think price surge is unlikely. Recent new measures
should help to stabilize prices and volume growth in 2010.
Less downside risk, but no near-term catalyst. Given
the underperformance of China property stocks against the
HSI by 20% in the past 6 months, the market has started to
price in potential policy risk. Yet we don’t see near-term
positive catalysts given policy noises and the arrival of weak
sales season.
Two stock selection strategies. Share prices will likely be
range bound. Short-term investors could trade at between
11X and 14X FY10 P/E, and long funds could buy strong
developers and commercial plays on dips. Strong players
tend to outperform in an uncertain market - we like COLI,
CR Land and Shimao. Commercial plays, like Franshion, are
also defensive as the outlook for commercial properties is
turning positive and they are less affected by policy
tightening.