【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国水泥行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
We examine Chinese cement producers’ earnings sensitivity
to: a) the potential decline in China’s fixed asset investment
(FAI) as Beijing diverts spending away from infrastructure
projects. HSBC’s China economist estimates the real growth
in China’s urban FAI growth is likely to drop from 33%
y-o-y in 2009 to 23% in 2010; b) rapidly rising coal prices:
the Qinghuangdao domestic price has surged 30.8% since
October, to RMB785/t.
We find that: a) every 1% decline in China’s FAI growth
could reduce our earnings forecasts by between 1.8% and
4.6%; b) for every 1% increase in coal prices, our earnings
forecast could fall by between 0.4% and 4.8%. As we use an
even more conservative FAI forecast, we maintain our
demand and ASP estimates.
We now expect coal prices to rise 5% in 2010, up from our
previous forecast of 2.5%. As such, we lower our earnings
estimates for Conch (by 2.8%), CNBM (1.6%), Shanshui
(3.5%) and Sinoma (2.6%). There are no changes in ratings
but there are several changes to target prices.
Top picks. We prefer CNBM on resilient ASPs but still-low
valuation; CRC on still-strong ASPs and very high
profitability per tonne; Shanshui and Sinoma. All are OW(V).
Catalysts and risks. M&A activity and real estate recovery.
Risks include government policy to tighten cement
investment, slowdown in infrastructure spending.