【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国水泥行业研究报告
        【作者】：CIMB-GK
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：20
        【目录或简介】：
Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Although we are turning more cautious on the growth of
housing starts, we continue to OVERWEIGHT the cement sector given the uptick in
cement prices resulting from a cost push and higher downstream demand.
Moreover, we believe cement demand will be cushioned by increased rural housing
construction and low-cost housing which consumes more cement than steel.
Furthermore, real estate accounts for 22% of cement demand compared with 41%
of steel usage. We keep Anhui Conch (unchanged TP of HK$65.0) as an
Outperform and our top pick in the cement universe given its favourable market
exposure and healthy financials. Its valuation is cheap at less than US$70 EV/tonne
compared to the industry average of over US$90/t.
• Like eastern China the most. In our sector note in Mar, we predicted a rise in
cement price. Since then, it has gone up Rmb5-20/tonne or 2-7% in the regions we
favour. This is promising as an industry glut led to a flatlining of cement prices over
the past decade compared to a 3fold increase for coal price. In the longer term, we
expect cement prices to rally once the oversupply problem is resolved. Regionwise,
our preference is for eastern China (Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong) as we
foresee a significant improvement in its oversupply problem. Our least favoured
region is southwest China (Sichuan, Chengdu) where we still see a serious glut in
the next two years.
• No new capacity allowed. MIIT has issued the excess requirements for the
cement industry, which set a high threshold for the industry. Various-level
governments will be strict in controlling new cement projects. Provinces with per
capita clinker capacity above 1,000kg are banned from building new clinker
production lines. This suggests no new projects for provinces such as Anhui,
Zhejiang and Ningxia, which augurs well for Anhui Conch, CNBM and Sinoma.
Provinces with per capita clinker capacity of less than 1,000kg can only approve
new dry process (NDP) cement production lines and the production capacity has to
be the same as the outdated capacity eliminated