【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月亚太航空行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：58
        【目录或简介】：
Investment conclusion: In the next month or so, the
Asia/Pacific airlines will be reporting 4Q09 (Oct-Dec
2009) results. We expect these results to be less
“gloomy” and more “uplifting” than the previous three
quarters of 2009. Two underlying investment themes –
strength of air cargo recovery and return of premium
passenger travel – will be near-term catalysts driving the
performance of the Asian airline stock prices.
Why buy now? Four near-term catalysts are in
confluence: (a) both RPK and FRTK traffic have reached
inflection points; (b) premium yield and cargo rates are
stabilizing; (c) there is less oil complexity as fuel hedging
positions are unwound and/or restructured; and (d)
equity recapitalization lowers the balance sheet
concerns for airlines. These four factors are pointing to a
bullish up cycle for Asia/Pacific airlines’ absolute
valuation.
What's new: In this report, we provide an update on
where the airline business is relative to the business
cycle. In the individual company section, we list the key
signposts that have made us turn positive on the stocks
as well as our major concerns.
Where we differ: Our views are: (a) Sharp decline in
premium travel and yield is cyclical, not structural, and
premium yield will recover as in past cycles; (b) Our
model uses higher oil prices than consensus; and (c)
Valuation metric shifted to EV/EBITDA from P/BV as we
look to mid-cycle earnings for Tier-1 airlines because of
the more predictable EBITDA projections but we
continue to use P/BV for non-Tier-1 airlines due to the
less predictable EBITDA forecast.
Buy Singapore Airlines, THAI Airways International,
Cathay Pacific and EVA Airways.