CONTENTS
I  THE TRADE SITUATION IN 2008-09 ............................................................................................................... 1
A  INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................................... 1
B  OVERVIEW OF TRADE AND PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENTS IN 2008-09 ...................................... 3
C  MERCHANDISE TRADE, VOLUME (REAL) TERMS, 2008 ......................................................................... 5
D  MERCHANDISE AND SERVICES TRADE, VALUE (NOMINAL) TERMS, 2008 ................................... 7
II  TRADE POLICY COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCY MEASURES ............................................. 19
A  INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................... 19
B  FLEXIBILITY IN TRADE AGREEMENTS ........................................................................................................ 21
1.  Economic theories of trade agreements and the role of flexibilities .......................................................... 21
2.  Circumstances for suspension of commitments and flexibility measures  
built into the WTO agreements .....................................................................................................................30
3.  Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................39
C  ECONOMICS, DISCIPLINES AND PRACTICES ........................................................................................... 47
1.  Safeguards .......................................................................................................................................................... 47
2.  Dumping and anti-dumping measures .......................................................................................................... 65
3.  Subsidies and countervailing duties ...............................................................................................................84
4.  Other selected measures of contingency protection ..................................................................................102
5.  Choosing among different measures ............................................................................................................ 114
6.  Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................................... 117
D  EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ......................................................................................................................................127
1.  Patterns and trends in the use of contingency measures ...........................................................................127
2.  Contingency measures and the multilateral trading system ....................................................................142
3.  Factors explaining the use of trade contingency measures .......................................................................147
4.  The economic impact of contingency measures .........................................................................................152
5.  Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................................156
E  CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................................159