A more robust year .................................................................................................................67
Orthopaedics ..........................................................................................................................68
(2010E: sales of $2,252m, 56% of gp; EBITA of $574m, 60% of gp).....................................68
Endoscopy ..............................................................................................................................72
(2010E: sales of $834m, 21% of gp; EBITA of $195m, 20% of gp)........................................72
Advanced Wound Management (AWM).................................................................................73
(2010E: sales of $892m, 22% of gp; EBITA of $194m, 20% of gp)........................................73
Potential of some benefits of cyclical recoveries....................................................................76
Valuation ................................................................................................................................79
Price Target............................................................................................................................82
Risks ......................................................................................................................................82
Forecasts ...............................................................................................................................83
Coloplast .......................................................................................... 89
Prepare for profitable growth..................................................................................................89
Ostomy ..................................................................................................................................91
(2009/10E: 41% of group sales)..............................................................................................91
Continence care (CC) & urology (U) ........................................................................................94
(2009/10E: 42% of group sales)..............................................................................................94
Wound & Skin Care.................................................................................................................96
(2009/10E: 17% of group sales)..............................................................................................96
Further profitability improvements..........................................................................................97
Marginal benefits of cyclical upturn ........................................................................................99
Valuation Coloplast................................................................................................................100
Price Target..........................................................................................................................101
Risks ....................................................................................................................................101
Forecasts ..............................................................................................................................102
Synthes........................................................................................... 107
Some scope of outperformance in early 2010E....................................................................107
Continue to strengthen market positions..............................................................................108
Strong balance sheet with mounting cash balances.... .........................................................108
Reimbursement rates to be scrutinised closely....................................................................110
Earnings could benefit modestly from an economic upturn .................................................111
Op. improvements to counter deteriorating fundamentals ................................................... 113
Valuation ...............................................................................................................................115
Price Target..........................................................................................................................116
Risks ....................................................................................................................................116
Forecasts ..............................................................................................................................117