【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国房地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：建银国际
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：64
        【目录或简介】：
China Property
Supply Looms, Policy Mixed,
Be Selective
What's Changed
Industry View: China Property Attractive to In-Line
China Vanke, SOHO China,
Central China
Downgrade from OW to EW
Aoyuan Downgrade from EW to UW
Renhe Downgrade from OW to UW
Turning more cautious, be selective: We are cautious
on the potential supply demand situation in 2010, and
have adopted a more conservative stance on prices.
However, policy fears and broad market weakness in
the past two months have dragged down stock prices to
a reasonably attractive level for a number of companies.
We downgrade our industry view on China Property
from Attractive to In-Line – but we hold a constructive
view on companies with strong re-rating potential. Our
key stock picks are Sino-Ocean, Agile and KWG.
Pricing power erosion, but policy to remain
accommodative: Based on our proprietary
demand/supply model, we expect record new supply in
2010 to erode developers’ pricing power. We do not
anticipate a repeat of the 2008 price war, however,
reflecting a largely unchanged credit stance and decent
financial health among developers. We are adopting a
flat price assumption in our forward NAV estimates.
Key valuation and rating changes: In view of less
exciting price movements, we have adjusted our
average target discount to NAV from 10% to 30%. We
are downgrading Vanke, SOHO, and Central China from
OW to EW; Aoyuan from EW to UW; and Renhe from
OW to UW.
Key risks: The key macro risk will be a change in the
accommodative credit policy – i.e., a cut in loan quota.
The key micro risk will be irrational land banking.