【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国房地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：54
        【目录或简介】：

Contracted sales to grow in 2010, even if total volumes fall. We get the
impression that investors, in general, lack confidence in many Chinese
property developers’ double-digit growth guidance for contracted sales in
2010. However, with local governments making it easier to obtain pre-sales
permits to boost supply, leading Chinese developers (especially those that
relied less on inventory sales in 2009) should be able to meet their targets
for 2010 contracted sales, in our view. Even a 20% decline in total volumes
implies more than 20% growth in new supply in 2010.
■ Proprietary data indicates property prices should not correct much. Our
data analysis shows that: 1) the property price surge in 2009 in some cities
may have been driven largely by changes in the product mix, and 2) the
structural change driven by the two baby boom periods should help sustain
demand. Credit Suisse’s consumer survey also shows a strong correlation
between budgets for property purchases and prevailing price trends, which
explains why the affordability ratio is not that meaningful in China.
■ Scenario and sensitivity analysis show favourable risk-reward profile,
with a potential catalyst. Even if ASPs and volumes drop significantly in
2010, we find some property names would still appear attractive based on
valuations. An inspection team led by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-
Rural Development (MOHURD) is scheduled to report its findings on the
property market in early March, which may prompt the Chinese government
to take a more balanced approach to the sector. This may become a positive
catalyst, in our view.
■ COLI, Sino Ocean and E-House remain our top picks. The key focus is
on the project pipeline, financial strength and geographic reach.