China
Extremely strong credit growth in China of upwards of 30% of GDP in 2009,
combined with strong rebounds in property and equity prices, has naturally given
rise to questions about the extent to which some portion of new loans may have
been diverted into asset markets. Due to the fungibility of money, it is impossible
to identify precisely what share of lending in 2009 may have been directed into
property or equities, but a comparison of recent trends in loan growth and asset
prices would suggest more than a nominal contribution of credit to the recent
rebound in asset markets (see charts to the left). Valid arguments can be made on
both sides as to whether or not these price trends are early indicators of a creditfuelled
bubble, but regardless of the technical designation, Chinese banks have
become notably more exposed to property and equities in the wake of the 2009
credit boom, with property in particular becoming a growing area of concern.
Real Estate
Data deficiencies prevent a robust review of the real estate market in China, but
available information suggests prices are elevated in certain key markets. At the
same time, office vacancy rates indicate significant excess capacity, but again only
in certain areas. Taken together, Fitch interprets the pricing and vacancy rate data
as indicative of a potential correction looming in Chinese real estate. If this were to
materialise, Chinese banks would clearly be affected.
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