【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月亚洲智能手机行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：72
        【目录或简介】：
Smartphone penetration rising, driving revenue. We forecast there will be
347 mn smartphone users in Asia ex. Japan by 2015. We expect “non-SMS”
data use on handsets to grow to 17.4% of revenue by 2015, with smartphones
raising compound revenue growth rates by up to 4.5 p.p. in developed
markets. Importantly, we expect the increase in revenue to lead directly to
higher cash flows, given minimal incremental opex and capex implications.
■ A much more meaningful driver in developed markets. Without the
added boost of data revenue growth, we would be projecting cellular market
revenue declines in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and Malaysia.
Among the developing markets, smartphone growth is providing a welcome
additional revenue boost in Indonesia and China, but it is not significant
enough to offset material declines in core voice and SMS revenue caused by,
for example, an aggressive price war. We therefore remain cautious on the
Indian operators.
■ A variety of stocks to play. Having quantified the impact of smartphones,
our preferred plays on this theme include M1, Singtel, HTHK, Maxis and KT
from the developed markets. Indosat and China Mobile would be the best
developing market plays. Smartphones should also be a powerful driver for
the tech value chain, and our top picks would be Samsung, MediaTek and
HTC. In the Internet space in China, Baidu and China Mobile itself seem to
be intuitive beneficiaries.