【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月欧洲航空与军工行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：34
        【目录或简介】：


Aerospace & Defence
2010 Ready for Boarding
EADS and Cobham are our top picks in the sector.
With full-year earnings season fast approaching, we
update our views on each stock and outline our top picks
in the space. The key debate for defence remains the
impact of cuts to defence spending, whereas in civil the
focus is on the likely magnitude of the recovery in
after-market revenues. Cobham is our top pick in
defence for its ability to show high-quality growth in a
weak budget environment; in civil aerospace, we prefer
EADS for the excessively bearish consensus on the
stock, the positive catalysts of an A400M resolution and
improving traffic, and the benefit of a stronger USD.
For civil aerospace, the focus remains on the
strength of backlogs, the need for production cuts
and whether after-market revenues could positively
surprise. While OEMs are confident in the strength of
their backlogs, the market remains sceptical and
believes production cuts are needed particularly to avoid
excess capacity. While these concerns are valid and do
not rule out small production cuts, we think OEMs
deserve credit for their careful management of the
backlog, which has kept cancellations levels very low.
For after-market players, the debate is clearly whether
volume improvements could positively surprise. We
believe this is increasingly likely, especially given recent
traffic data. Rolls-Royce is our preferred name for those
wanting to buy into an after-market recovery.
For defence contractors, the key is to identify those
stocks that can grow despite a weak budget
environment. In stark contrast to the performance of
civil aerospace stocks, defence shares have had a torrid
time due to concerns over the impact of defence budget
cuts. While we believe there is a clear need to cut
budgets, the level of activity in Afghanistan makes
material cuts very difficult. We also note widespread
scepticism over an 18-month pull-out of troops.
Updating estimates across our coverage universe.
We update our forecasts ahead of the full-year results
and rebase to an assumed USD/GBP rate of 1.65 and
USD/EUR rate of 1.45.