【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月欧洲金融行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：37
        【目录或简介】：


Diversified Financials
Not Enough Recovery in
Exchanges; Prefer Asset
Managers
Regulatory risks, cyclical and competitive
pressures to weigh on exchanges – DB1 to EW. With
DB1 now EW, there is no European exchange on our
buy list (LSE / BME stay UW). For exchanges, we see
average earnings growth of 10% off the 2009 trough,
compared to ~40% for the asset/wealth management
sub-group, which we prefer given regulatory/competitive
positioning: Overweight SDR, Baer, III and HGG (all in
our European banks’ model portfolio).
We see competitive pressures extending into US
equity options and pressures building for fee cuts
in market data. Market share and pricing risk in cash
equities offer downside risks, given exchange pricing is
still ~10x that of MTFs.
Interest rates recovery priced in, NII and equity
derivative pressures underestimated. Only 19% of
Eurex revenues are related to rates. We believe DB1’s
leverage to rates volatility is overstated by consensus.
In our view, TLPR and ICAP represent better European
plays on this theme. Equally, we expect NII down 17% in
2010 vs 2009. A combination of market share loss at ISE,
cyclical pressure from low equity market vol and mix
shift to lower margin single-name from index product
leaves us ~10% below consensus on DB1.
Regulatory pressures the key uncertainty; potential
capital cost creep. DB1’s and LSE’s plans to grow in
post-trade face potential pressures from rising capital
requirements. Whilst multiple layers of protection exist in
clearing (e.g. margin, default funds), we see a possibility
of regulatory capital cost creep accompanying moves to
OTC derivative clearing. Balance sheet repair, given
debt, could constrain payouts at LSE/DB1 near term.
Additional risks to exchanges/IDBs volumes come from
proposals for liability tax on banks and prop restrictions,
whilst mandated exchange trading is a wild card risk for
IDBs, although we expect pragmatism to prevail.