【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月英国建材销售行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：48
        【目录或简介】：
􀀗 Deflation in US building supplies prices
likely to pressure EBIT margins
􀀗 Wave of previously deferred
completions in the UK and currency
factors helping to support prices
􀀗 We raise our target price for Wolseley
(UW(V)) to 1,000p from 850p, and upgrade
Travis Perkins to N(V) from UW(V) with a
new target price of 820p from 790p
Currency, price and value
We have outlined in recent reports the risk to distributors’
operational gearing posed by a fall in prices for building
supplies. This price deflation is now apparent in the US and
as US industry inventory remains at 20-year highs, this
weakness may continue.
In the UK, a Q4 surge in new-build residential completions
and movements in the sterling exchange rate against the
Nordic currencies have helped support prices. There is a risk
that this rise in completions proves temporary as it includes a
number of previously deferred projects, but price deflation
risk has subsided in the UK. UK industry inventory-sales
ratios are much reduced but this is partly a currency effect
and we think it is premature to take the issue off the watch
list. We also note that a wave of completions by the larger
house builders is likely to depress the distributors’ gross
margin because these customers tend to have larger volume
discounts. The medium-term position will be determined by
underlying demand. However, we believe the market is
focusing too much on US housing starts to gauge underlying
demand and that alternative, less volatile, leading indicators
currently suggest a less rosy outlook.
We have raised our forecasts to reflect this view and currency
effects and divestments at Wolseley. We have raised our target
price for Wolseley to 1,000p from 850p (+18%) and for Travis
Perkins to 820p from 790p (+4%). We upgrade Travis Perkins
to Neutral (V) from Underweight (V) but remain
Underweight (V) on Wolseley. The multiples suggest the
market expects solid Q4 numbers but has not priced in the
deflation risks.