【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月欧洲广告代理行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：71
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3
The big picture view – self-help and cyclical optionality............................................................3
Valuation and forecasts.............................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
Changes to forecasts and target prices ........................................... 5
The state of the market..................................................................... 7
Conclusions..............................................................................................................................7
Global advertising forecasts......................................................................................................7
Putting the performance of the market in long term context..................................................10
What are the advertisers themselves saying? ........................................................................14
Companies which increase A&P outperform those which cut................................................16
Thinking about the cost bases ....................................................... 19
Conclusions............................................................................................................................19
Detailed cost forecasts for the large agencies........................................................................19
Staff costs..............................................................................................................................21
Property costs.........................................................................................................................23
G&A and other costs...............................................................................................................24
Where now for margins?................................................................. 25
Conclusions............................................................................................................................25
Margins surprised on the upside in the last cycle...................................................................25
Thinking about operational gearing – 2010 is the sweet spot.................................................27
Beyond the near-term margin bounce: looking for structural savings.....................................27
How will WPP and Publicis increase margins? .......................................................................29
Structural issues impacting margins? .....................................................................................32
Forecasts and valuation .................................................................. 35
Conclusions............................................................................................................................35
Summary forecasts.................................................................................................................35
EPS and free cash per share – WPP and Publicis ...................................................................36
Organic revenue growth .........................................................................................................37
Cash flow and working capital – positive surprise for 2010? ..................................................38
Trading ranges – PE and EV/revenues.....................................................................................39
DCF........................................................................................................................................41
Peer group multiples...............................................................................................................41
Aegis ................................................................................................. 44
Havas ................................................................................................ 46
Publicis ............................................................................................. 48
WPP Group....................................................................................... 50
Interpublic Group ............................................................................ 52
Omnicom.......................................................................................... 54
Appendix – marketing commentary database .............................. 56