【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月德国电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：

Upgrade United Internet to OW(V) from
N(V), TP up to EUR14.0 (vs EUR10.5);
also raising TPs for Versatel (to EUR8.0
from EUR7.0) and Drillisch (EUR4.8 from
EUR4.0), both remain N(V)
􀀗 Cash generation is the new focus for
altnets as growth is hard to see for most
􀀗 NGA infrastructure competition, mobile
data uptake and growth in video on
demand are key trends for 2010
What to expect in 2010. In the fixed-line business, we
expect NGA competition to become reality. Vodafone might
build its own VDSL network, cable is upgrading to
DOCSIS3.0 and Deutsche Telekom is expanding
FTTC/VDSL. Video on demand looks set to grow as it
enters the living room (see ‘DisContent’, September 2009).
On the mobile side, we expect smartphones to spread
rapidly, straining capacity in mobile networks (see ‘Capacity
Crunch’, December 2009). We foresee mobile service
providers continuing to lose market share and doubt they
will benefit proportionately from mobile data growth.
United Internet stands out – upgrade to OW(V) from
N(V): We think German altnets will struggle to restore topline
growth and will continue to focus on generating cash.
The exception is United Internet, in our view. It combines
structural growth in cloud computing with cyclical recovery
in online advertising spending. We think its DSL business
might see margin pressure and lose more market share, but
shifting users to higher ARPU bundles should provide shortterm
revenue growth, and increased competition in NGA
infrastructure is likely to help the company as a reseller in
the medium term.
2009 results preview: We expect subscriber losses to have
continued in Q4 2009. Lower subscriber-acquisition costs
should have helped altnets meet 2009 earnings targets.
Strong cash generation should lead to more upbeat
comments on shareholder returns.