【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月俄罗斯电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：68
        【目录或简介】：

Merger looms large. Svyainvest’s reorganization plan, approved by the
BoD on 20th October 2009, calls for a merger of the seven regional telecom
operators (RTOs) with Rostelecom (using the latter as a hub). This would
see Rostelecom issuing new common shares and exchanging them for both
the common and preferred shares of the RTOs. For the RTOs, the still
unknown swap ratios thus become the key valuation parameter. We assume
the independent appraiser will use a 50/50 split between a DCF valuation
and a market price in calculating the swap ratios. Once the official
coefficients are announced, they need approval by >75% of shareholders
(common and pref) in each of the seven RTOs, with board meetings to be
held in June/July of 2010. Assuming approval is given, the transaction may
lead to creation of a national operator “NewROS" by May 2011.
• Valuation could vary widely. Pre-empting the announcement of the official
swap coefficients, our approach involves modeling DCF valuations and
combining them with the RTOs' market valuations. This generates a
downside/upside range of between -12% to +54%. We highlight that
although the key assumptions that will be used by the official appraiser in
valuing the RTOs remain unknown, our approach shows, at the very least,
the relative attractiveness of the names in question.
• Simple investment strategies. To hedge individual company risk, we
recommend buying a basket of the RTOs with the highest theoretical upside:
ord shares of Dalsvyaz, Sibir, Volga Telecom and Dalsvyaz prefs.
Alternatively, we suggest switching from those shares with the least
potential upside (South Telecom ord and prefs, Rostelecom ord and North-
West prefs) into those with the highest theoretical upside.
• Mind the risks. Given the Russian State’s ambivalent tone and indecision
regarding Svyazinvest’s restructuring plans, the timing of the reorganization,
should it indeed be approved, appears somewhat uncertain. If the
reorganization does not take place, the shares could see some short-term
downside pressure, given that the swaps, and hence the reorganization, are
expected by the market. In this eventuality, we highlight that the RTOs are
quite illiquid and lack other visible positive catalysts.
• NewROS: We have assessed the potential attractiveness of NewROS and
believe that should the reorganization take place, there could be potential
value creation from merger synergies. However, execution and strategy risks
could be considerable: i) will NewROS be allowed to reduce headcount? ii)
will NewROS acquire one of the BIG3 mobiles? iii) what will cash returns
look like? Overall, these risks, combined with our forecast of lacklustre
revenue and EBITDA CAGRs for 2009-13E of c.1%, paint a relatively
unattractive picture. While our base-case scenario points to a moderate
discount to CEEMEA telecom peers, we view Sistema and Comstar as more
attractive plays – should Comstar enter into an asset/debt swap with the
Russian state, we believe it would trade at par to NewROS, yet with much
lower risks.

Table of Contents
Svyazinvest restructuring........................................................7
Details of proposed restructuring and timing...............................................................8
NewROS: post restructuring .................................................13
NewROS ..................................................................................16
DCF analysis and valuations......................................................................................16
Key RTO data and drivers......................................................19
Key assumptions ........................................................................................................20
Company Profiles...................................................................27
Center Telecom.......................................................................28
Uralsvyazinform .....................................................................30
Volga Telecom ........................................................................32
Sibir Telecom..........................................................................34
NorthWest Telecom................................................................36
Southern Telecom ..................................................................38
Dalsvyaz ..................................................................................40
Rostelecom .............................................................................42
Russian Wireline in the Global Context................................44
Key Industry risks ..................................................................45
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................47