【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月泰国电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：33
        【目录或简介】：
Risk back in focus, but unlikely to crystallise. The Shinawatra ruling,
relating to a nine-year old amendment to a 2G concession agreement, has
refocused investor attention on various downside risks for the Thailand
telecom operators. Since we continue to believe that these risks will not
actually crystallise, we maintain our OUTPERFORM ratings on AIS, DTAC
and True Corp. We have an OVERWEIGHT rating on the sector.
■ Do not forget the 3G upside. The National Telecom Commission (NTC) is
now fully staffed, with a pro-business, pro-investment “liberal” (Khun Prasit)
elected as chairman. Furthermore, the Council of State returned “no opinion”
on the legality of the NTC proceeding with 3G licence issuance without the
National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) having been formed. With no
specific legal objections having been raised, NTC-issued 3G licences, with
6% licence fees, could still be in place by early 2011. AIS and DTAC’s target
prices are maintained at Bt133 and Bt58, respectively, True Corp’s target
price is revised down 10.3% to Bt3.50 on the one-year 3G delay to 2011.
■ Even a “compromise” case leaves upside. While recent government
actions might not appear pro-reform, the potential for a collapse in industry
investment (and the resulting threat to the “all-important” concession flows to
TOT Corp and CAT Corp) would eventually lead the government to revisit
3G even if the NTC misses its window of opportunity (again). Yet even with
20% 3G revenue shares and taxes, AIS and DTAC would still have upside to
Bt110 and Bt43.50, respectively, and True Corp would be fairly valued at
Bt2.90.