【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月南非电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：68
        【目录或简介】：

Summary 3
Can M-Pesa’s success be
replicated? 11
Outlook for mobile payments: Sonatel and Celtel Zambia 11
M-Pesa: can the Kenyan success be replicated? 11
Senegal, Mali and Zambia could see similar success 15
Mobile broadband potential 18
Data major source of growth, 3G GSM to benefit the most 18
Improvements in infrastructure 19
Handset usage key to broadband growth 19
Safaricom 25
Competition on voice and data less harmful than expected 25
Voice ARPU erosion to persist but market share to stabilise 26
Data expectations raised on assumption that Safaricom will
dominate the market 27
Safaricom’s competitors in regulatory battles 28
Expensive valuation despite optimistic forecasts 29
Sonatel 33
Focus on expansion, not on mobile payments and internet 33
Plans for secondary listing 34
Geographic expansion plans 34
Innovation not a priority for now 36
Competition risk has not materialised; raising forecasts 37
Celtel Zambia 43
Strong potential if regulatory environment turns positive 43
Q3 saw improved subs growth, ARPU and margins 44
New ICT bill grants more power to the regulator 46
Changes in forecasts 47
Starcomms 51
Consolidation still the likely outcome in our view 51
Mobile drags bottom line into the red in Q309; Q4 tougher? 52
Upside in valuation to be driven by consolidation 56
Appendix 59
Disclosure appendix 62
Disclaimer 67